Tories Focus on Election Hopes Amidst Shifting Political Landscape

Conservative Party leaders are articulating an optimistic vision for the upcoming general election, signaling a focus on winning outright despite current unfavorable polling. This upbeat outlook, particularly evident at the party's recent conference in Birmingham, stems from several factors, including the perceived neutralization of the threat posed by Reform UK and the growing personal popularity of party leader Kemi Badenoch.

According to pollsters More In Common, Badenoch's approval ratings have significantly increased, positioning her as one of the few party leaders with a net positive public rating. Focus groups describe her as a "breath of fresh air" and someone who "says it as it is," with her performances at Prime Minister's Questions earning praise for being "intelligent," "professional," and "principled." However, this personal popularity has not yet translated to the party as a whole, which is still viewed by some voters as "outdated" and "divided."

Conservative chairman Kevin Hollinrake acknowledged the trust deficit, stating, "People do trust Kemi and they don't trust us, that's how I would put it in a nutshell. But we are building on that." Badenoch has sought to address this by emphasizing that the party is under new management, moving away from some "culture war" rhetoric to focus on economic issues and a return to traditional Conservative principles.

While Badenoch herself has not claimed the party could win an election if held now, she has definitively ruled out governing in a hung parliament with Reform UK, stating a preference for a new election. Hollinrake expressed a cautious approach, noting, "We are not where we need to be right now. We don't want an election right now, ideally. Ideally, it would come way down the track." Conversely, deputy leader Alex Burghart asserted that the party is actively preparing for an election, stating, "We are convinced we can win the election outright." Burghart also claimed the party is more united than in recent history, with the exception of the period following the 2019 election victory.

Despite these assertions of unity and preparation, the Conservatives still trail Reform UK by several points and are significantly behind the Labour Party in current polls. Former Scottish Conservative leader Dame Ruth Davidson suggested that a key challenge is for the Tories to become one of the "top two" parties, at which point voters seeking to oust Labour might begin to shift their support. The party believes tactical voting could play a crucial role in the next election, with Hollinrake declaring, "For the first time in history, the Conservative Party is now the least hated political party in the country," a statement that resonated with the audience as a pragmatic, albeit not overtly inspiring, observation regarding its potential in tactical voting scenarios.