Conservative Party analysis indicates that immigration will depress wages for British workers, resulting in an average annual loss of £2,500 per person by 2031. The party claims this will amount to a total suppression of wages totaling £89.8 billion over the next five years.
These projections are based on figures from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and the Bank of England. The OBR forecasts cumulative net migration of approximately 1.4 million between 2026 and 2031, which the Conservatives argue will increase job competition and put downward pressure on salaries.
The Bank of England's calculations suggest that a 10% rise in the immigrant-to-native ratio within a specific occupation and region is associated with a 0.93% decrease in average wages. Under these assumptions, average annual earnings are projected to fall from a baseline of £38,220 to £35,699 by 2031.
Shadow home secretary Chris Philp has called for a binding annual cap on immigration and stricter visa regulations. He also proposed new conditions for Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) status and an extension of the waiting period for British citizenship applications from 12 months to five years after obtaining ILR.
"High immigration has real consequences across our whole society, and British people feel indirectly in how much they earn. Labour have opened the door without any plan to deal with the consequences," Philp stated. He added that a future Conservative government would introduce an annual cap, close loopholes allowing temporary visa holders to remain indefinitely, tighten ILR conditions, and extend the required residency period.
The analysis and claims from the Conservatives come amid renewed focus on migration issues. Recent events include approximately 60,000 African migrants arriving in the Spanish territory of Ceuta in a single day, described by Reform UK's home affairs spokesman Zia Yusuf as an "invasion." Yusuf, who visited Ceuta, stated that many of the migrants expressed intentions to reach Britain, with one claiming to be wanted for murder in their home country. Separately, 752 migrants reportedly reached the UK via Channel crossings on a single Wednesday, the highest number recorded for that year.
Reform UK advocates for securing borders and suggests detaining and deporting all illegal migrants. Spain has condemned reactions from some EU countries to the influx in Ceuta, noting that most migrants who arrived on Thursday had since returned.
