A new analysis suggests that immigration will reduce the average British worker's annual wages by approximately £2,500 by 2031. The Conservative Party's calculations, based on figures from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and the Bank of England, indicate that immigration will suppress UK wages by a total of £89.8 billion over the next five years. This projection forecasts average annual earnings to fall from £38,220 to £35,699 by 2031.
The OBR forecasts cumulative net migration to reach around 1.4 million between 2026 and 2031. The Bank of England's modeling suggests that a 10% increase in the immigrant-to-native ratio in a given occupation and region is associated with a 0.93% reduction in average wages.
Shadow home secretary Chris Philp called for a binding annual cap on immigration and stricter visa rules. He proposed that a future Conservative government would introduce new conditions for Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) status and extend the waiting period for British citizenship to five years after obtaining ILR, up from the current 12 months. Philp stated that high immigration has tangible societal consequences, impacting the earnings of British citizens, and criticized the Labour Party for not having a plan to manage these effects.
These claims come amid increased attention on migration, highlighted by the arrival of approximately 60,000 African migrants into the Spanish territory of Ceuta in a single day, reportedly the largest surge of illegal migrants into the EU. Separately, 752 migrants reached the UK via Channel crossings on a single Wednesday, the highest number recorded this year.
Reform UK's home affairs spokesman, Zia Yusuf, who visited Ceuta, described the migrant surge as an 'invasion.' He stated that some migrants indicated an intention to reach Britain, with one claiming to be wanted for murder in their home country. Yusuf argued that uncontrolled borders will lead to increasingly common scenes of disorder, disproportionately affecting working British people, and asserted that Reform UK would detain and deport all illegal migrants. Spain, meanwhile, condemned some EU countries' reactions to the influx as 'selfish, polarising and unlawful,' noting that most migrants who reached Ceuta had since returned.
