The Kremlin has dismissed Andrei Klepach, a senior banker and chief economist at the state-controlled development giant VEB.RF, after he warned that Russia could face a "social crisis" due to the protracted conflict in Ukraine.
Klepach, described as a longtime Moscow insider, stated in a speech that Russia "will not win" its "war of attrition" with Ukraine and predicted that President Vladimir Putin was steering the country toward turmoil reminiscent of the revolutions of 1917 and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. His remarks were reportedly leaked, leading to his dismissal following a "call from above" to VEB.RF head Igor Shuvalov.
Klepach's critique, published on the website of the Nikitsky Club, a forum for economists and academics, marked a rare public dissent from a figure within a state institution regarding the costs of the war launched in 2022. He challenged the notion that Ukraine would collapse under Russian pressure, citing significant Western support for Kyiv. "We are losing both technological and economic competition globally," Klepach warned, adding that Russia was falling behind not only China and the United States but also Ukraine in some respects.
He drew parallels between the current situation and historical periods of upheaval in Russia. "Putin could make the same mistake as last Tsar Nicholas II and the Soviet gerontocracy which both steered the country in the wrong direction," he said, comparing the potential for social crisis to the February Revolution of 1917 and the dissolution of the USSR in 1991. While he expressed belief that Russia would not fall apart, he was "almost certain" of an impending social crisis, which he predicted could arise unexpectedly.
Klepach acknowledged Russia's resilience to Western sanctions but noted mounting pressure from Ukrainian strikes on energy and logistics infrastructure. He pointed to rising income inequality and slower GDP growth compared to the U.S. and Ukraine. Recent Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries and warehouses have created supply shocks, raising inflation risks and public unease.
Despite President Putin's assertions of economic stability, Klepach forecast that Russia's economic lag would continue to grow. He also criticized Russia's over-dependence on China and cited uncoordinated monetary, budgetary, and industrial policies as contributors to the economic slowdown. "The quality of governance is almost constantly deteriorating," he stated, lamenting decisions with "an extremely low level of justification but long-term strategic consequences."
Klepach's dismissal coincided with other pressures on dissent in Russia. Lev Shlosberg, deputy chairman of the liberal Yabloko party, was sentenced to over 11 years in prison for condemning the war. The Yabloko party, the only registered political party to have called for an end to the war, was also recently excluded from an upcoming parliamentary election by Russia's Supreme Court.
Official casualty figures for the conflict are not publicly released by either Russia or Ukraine. However, independent analyses by Mediazona and the BBC Russian service have recorded at least 239,354 Russian military deaths, with estimated total excess mortality among Russian men suggesting a toll potentially exceeding 350,000.