Tigray Rebels Withdraw From Regional Capital as Federal Forces Advance

Leaders of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) announced their withdrawal from Mekelle, the regional capital of northern Ethiopia, on Saturday. This move clears the path for federal troops and their allies to enter the city, marking a significant development in the renewed fighting that threatens to destabilize the region.

The TPLF had seized Mekelle and its airport on September 23, prompting Ethiopian Airlines to suspend flights to the city and other Tigrayan locations. The African Union has urged restraint, warning that the escalating tensions jeopardize the peace agreement signed in 2022.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has faced challenges in subduing Tigray's rebellious leaders in recent months. TPLF Chairman Debretsion Gebremichael has openly contested Abiy's authority, stating that the current fighting is a "continuation of the previous war." The TPLF's decision to withdraw from Mekelle mirrors a tactic used in the previous two-year war, where the group withdrew from the city to prevent its destruction.

Following the federal forces' expected control of Mekelle, security in the region is likely to be handed over to the Tigray Peace Force, which consists of former members of the TPLF's armed wing, the Tigray Defense Forces. This force is currently operating alongside federal troops against the TPLF.

Gathering and verifying information from Tigray has been difficult due to severe disruptions in internet and cellphone networks. However, some connectivity was reported on Sunday. Residents in Mekelle reported on Saturday that federal forces had retaken the airport, though details remain scarce.

As TPLF-allied fighters withdrew, civilians were observed looting government offices and removing equipment from police headquarters in Mekelle. Looting targeted administration offices, the regional police headquarters, and some shops. Witnesses described observing small groups of TPLF-allied fighters departing the city on foot and with light weapons, with departures beginning several days prior and continuing through Saturday afternoon.

Small groups of fighters from the Tigray Peace Force entered Mekelle, and residents reported hearing celebratory gunfire overnight into Sunday morning.

The TPLF is part of an alliance of seven opposition groups that recently declared their objective to remove Prime Minister Abiy, who assumed power in 2018. The TPLF was the dominant party in the coalition that governed Ethiopia from 1991 to 2018.

The renewed conflict has exacerbated the hardships faced by civilians still recovering from the previous war. Residents have expressed fears of renewed isolation, with roads connecting Tigray and the neighboring Afar region closed to civilian traffic.

The conflict has also strained regional alliances, with Ethiopia alleging that the TPLF is receiving support from Eritrea and Egypt. Ethiopia's relationship with Egypt has been tense due to disagreements over a large dam on the Nile River. Additionally, Prime Minister Abiy's expressed desire for Ethiopia to gain sovereign access to the Eritrean Red Sea port of Assab has strained relations with Eritrea.

Ethiopia recently closed its embassy in Eritrea and ordered Eritrean diplomats to leave Addis Ababa, citing national security concerns. Eritrea retaliated by announcing it was cutting diplomatic ties with Ethiopia. Both Egypt and Eritrea deny supporting the TPLF, with Eritrea accusing Abiy of attempting to externalize an internal conflict. Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki recently visited Egypt to discuss bilateral ties.