Thune Confident GOP Will Hold Senate, Downplays House Flip Risk

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., is expressing confidence that Republicans will retain control of both the House and the Senate in the upcoming election, downplaying the possibility of divided government. However, election forecasters suggest the House presents a more challenging battle for the GOP.

In a recent interview with Fox News Digital, Thune stated his belief that voters will ultimately choose Republican leadership in both legislative chambers. "I still think that when push comes to shove and people look at the choices in front of them that we have a really good shot at hanging on both the House and the Senate," Thune said. He acknowledged that divided government, where one party controls the presidency and the other controls one or both houses of Congress, creates a different dynamic but asserted, "I don't assume for a minute that's going to happen."

Election forecasters, however, present a more nuanced view. While many predict the Senate could remain under Republican control, numerous races are considered toss-ups. The outlook for the House is described as murkier, with a significant number of competitive seats leaning toward Democrats.

The Republican Party has held the majority in the House since 2022. However, factors such as President Donald Trump's approval ratings and ongoing economic pressures could influence voters to favor Democrats regaining control of the lower chamber.

Thune, who has been actively campaigning for Republican candidates in competitive Senate races, emphasized the importance of maintaining GOP control in the Senate. He believes this is crucial for advancing key aspects of President Trump's agenda, particularly the confirmation of judicial and executive branch nominations. "So if you want to see the country succeed and move forward, we've got to have a majority in the U.S. Senate to work with this president," Thune stated, adding, "Hopefully with a majority in the House as well, but I am very committed to doing whatever I can in the next couple of weeks getting around the country on behalf of our candidates to ensure that we have that majority in the Senate."

Should Democrats win the House and Republicans hold the Senate, the relationship between Thune and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., would become central to legislative progress. The two leaders have previously exchanged sharp criticisms during congressional debates. Thune accused Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., earlier this year of being controlled by their party's progressive wing during negotiations over funding for the Department of Homeland Security. Jeffries retorted that Thune was "scared of his own shadow" during a partisan standoff over federal spending.

Historically, Congress has operated under divided government. From 2023 to early 2025, Republicans controlled the House while Democrats held a narrow majority in the Senate. During that period, according to data from the Pew Research Center, the split Congress enacted 106 laws. In contrast, the current Congress has passed 121 laws, with significant legislation approved amidst prolonged government shutdowns.