Think Tank: Trump's Energy Policies Could Cost Households Thousands

Households in the contiguous United States are projected to pay an average of $6,500 more for energy cumulatively through 2040 as a result of federal policy changes implemented since Donald Trump returned to office, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan think tank Energy Innovation.

The report, released Friday, indicates that households in five states—Oregon, Mississippi, South Dakota, Virginia, and Wyoming—could face an additional $9,000 in energy costs by 2040. These increases are attributed to policy shifts that are expected to boost demand for natural gas for electricity and gasoline for transportation.

Energy Innovation stated that the administration is canceling new clean energy projects and revoking policies that encouraged more efficient and lower-emissions vehicles. Higher demand for these energy sources, according to the analysis, will drive up prices.

Federal policy changes are also projected to increase annual energy spending in Oregon by $840 per household in 2035 and $1,200 per household in 2040, resulting in a cumulative increase of $9,300 from 2026 to 2040, the highest of any state.

The analysis also forecasts significant environmental consequences, including an additional 37,000 premature deaths from air pollution, $72 billion in additional healthcare costs, and over 9 billion tons of additional carbon pollution. These projections are based on environmental rollbacks, the revocation of a scientific finding underpinning climate change efforts, and loosened fuel economy standards.

Conversely, Trump has stated that his administration's energy policies are intended to make bills more affordable. White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers asserted that lowering electricity prices remains a top priority and that Trump is promoting reliable energy sources like coal and natural gas to counteract what she described as "catastrophic damage" by Democrats through increased clean energy adoption.

Rogers criticized the Energy Innovation analysis, calling it "irresponsible" to classify the think tank as nonpartisan due to its employees' political donations and work with Democrats on climate policy. She contended that states led by Democrats embracing renewable mandates, such as California and New York, experience higher energy costs, which she presented as evidence of Republican policies' effectiveness.

However, the Energy Innovation report found that three of the five states facing the highest projected costs have Republican governors. Furthermore, states that voted for Trump in 2024 are expected to pay an average of $7,000 more in energy spending per household cumulatively, compared to an average of $5,800 per household in states that voted for Kamala Harris. The research also indicated that states with high levels of wind and solar generation, including Republican-led Iowa and Oklahoma, have experienced the lowest rate increases.

Average residential electricity prices have risen throughout President Biden's term and continued to increase after Trump returned to office. Data from the Energy Information Administration shows the average price per kilowatt-hour rose from approximately 12.6 cents in January 2021 to nearly 16 cents in January 2025, reaching 17.45 cents in January 2026 and 18.31 cents in July.

In Oregon, the projected increase in energy costs has drawn concern from the Oregon Citizens’ Utility Board. Executive Director Bob Jenks described the numbers as "frightening," citing existing energy affordability issues in the state, exacerbated by utilities' infrastructure upgrades and increased power consumption by data centers. Jenks anticipates that rising costs will lead to more households being disconnected from utilities and advocates for federal partnership in developing renewable energy resources.

The Energy Innovation analysis did not include Alaska or Hawaii due to a lack of available federal data for those states.