The Admiral Preparing for War with China

In his Hawaii office overlooking Pearl Harbor, Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of the U.S. Pacific Command, shoulders the immense responsibility of deterring war with China. His command, responsible for roughly half the Earth's surface, faces the most significant challenge to American dominance in the Pacific since World War II. Paparo's primary mission is to prevent a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, an event that would profoundly destabilize the global order.

Paparo, who took inspiration from the disciplined character Iceman in the movie Top Gun rather than the flamboyant Maverick, has built a career mirroring his chosen fictional hero. He is a four-star admiral commanding a vast force of approximately 400,000 personnel, including an extensive Pacific Fleet of around 200 ships and over 1,000 aircraft. He emphasizes that his goal is not to be a wartime leader but a "great peacetime deterrer," aiming for the "acme of skill" by winning without fighting, echoing the principles of Sun Tzu.

China's military modernization has dramatically altered the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region. Over the past three decades, its defense spending has surged, accompanied by significant advancements in technology and a rapid expansion of its naval capabilities, now the largest by hull count globally. U.S. intelligence suggests China's President Xi Jinping has directed his military to be prepared to seize Taiwan by force by 2027. While an invasion is not currently imminent, the necessary capabilities are expected to be in place by then.

Paparo's strategy to deter such an action is multifaceted, focusing on "deterrence by denial." This involves demonstrating credible U.S. combat power and resolve while safeguarding critical strategic secrets. A key element of this strategy, which he terms creating a "hellscape," involves overwhelming potential invasion routes with low-cost, mass-produced precision drones and conventional missile power. Inspired by Ukraine's defense tactics, this approach aims to deny China the ability to conduct a successful amphibious assault, or at least significantly delay it, making the cost prohibitive.

While Paparo prepares for the worst, he acknowledges that policy ultimately rests with the President. A 2023 wargame conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) indicated that while the U.S. and its allies could defeat a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the cost in terms of personnel and equipment would be substantial, potentially the heaviest American losses since World War II. Paparo aims to minimize these costs, stating, "What I am working toward is the margin by which we do [prevail], and that margin expresses itself in lives, capability, money, and time. I want to drive that bill down to zero."

Beyond the immediate focus on China and Taiwan, Paparo's command navigates a complex security environment. North Korea's nuclear ambitions and Russia's increased military capabilities in the region also demand attention. The ongoing U.S. involvement in conflicts such as the war in Iran and support for Ukraine has strained global resources, leading to a depletion of critical munitions stocks, including those for missile defense systems.

This strain on resources and the ongoing turmoil within the Pentagon, including the dismissal of numerous military leaders, adds layers of complexity to Paparo's mission. Despite these challenges, Paparo remains focused on adapting to the evolving nature of warfare, drawing parallels to historical moments of significant technological change, such as the shift from battleships to aircraft carriers during World War II, under Admiral Chester Nimitz.

Paparo's leadership is marked by a quiet dedication, reminiscent of his "Iceman" ideal. He aims to ensure that his efforts prevent conflict, stating, "Mine is not a heroic story. Heroism is service that happens at the unforgiving hour. The best service prevents the unforgiving hour."