The race for the Texas U.S. Senate seat is a dead heat, with Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico each capturing 49% of likely voters, according to a new Fox News poll. This marks a shift from the previous month when Talarico held a 2-point lead.

The poll suggests Paxton has consolidated support among conservatives, rural voters, suburban women, and those who previously backed incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the GOP primary. However, Talarico maintains strong leads among Black voters, urban voters, those under 30, and women with college degrees, while Paxton garners support from White evangelical Christians, White men without college degrees, rural voters, and older demographics.

A notable shift indicated by the poll is the strong return of Hispanic voters to the Democratic Party. After narrowly favoring former President Donald Trump in 2024, this key voting bloc now supports Talarico by a 30-point margin (64%-34%).

While Texans favor Republicans retaining control of the U.S. Senate by a 4-point margin (51%-47%), Talarico benefits from stronger party loyalty, with 98% of Democrats supporting him compared to 90% for Paxton among Republicans. The poll also reveals an enthusiasm edge for Democrats, with 69% of Democratic likely voters expressing extreme interest in the election compared to 61% of Republicans.

When it comes to candidate favorability, Talarico holds a slight net positive rating (49% favorable, 48% unfavorable), while Paxton's ratings are underwater by 17 points (41% favorable, 58% unfavorable). Voters express similar levels of concern about both candidates, with roughly half worried about Talarico's liberal positions or Paxton's closeness to Trump.

Personal finances are also a factor, with 43% of voters reporting they are worse off financially compared to two years ago. These voters are significantly more likely to back Talarico, while those who feel better off or about the same favor Paxton.

In the gubernatorial race, incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott holds a 5-point lead over his Democratic challenger, Beto O'Rourke, with 52% support to O'Rourke's 47%. Abbott maintains a positive job rating and benefits from a degree of ticket-splitting among Talarico supporters.

The Fox News Poll surveyed 2,011 Texas registered voters from October 15-19, 2026. The margin of sampling error for the likely voter subsample is ±2.5 percentage points.