Republicans' control of Texas is being tested in a closely watched U.S. Senate race between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, a contest that could impact the balance of power in Washington.
Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, but a confluence of factors has set the stage for a heated and expensive campaign. Republicans fear the potential loss of a key stronghold and a blow to their efforts to maintain a fragile Senate majority.
The race has put Paxton's history of scandals and legal troubles under scrutiny. He defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in a primary with a late endorsement from President Donald Trump, despite concerns from Senate Republican leadership about Paxton's vulnerability due to his ongoing legal issues, including accusations of corruption.
Talarico has centered his campaign on portraying Paxton as emblematic of a corrupt political system that benefits billionaires while everyday costs rise. He has also sought to attract moderate Republicans and independent voters disillusioned with Paxton. Talarico's populist message has been amplified by voter frustration over economic issues like the rising costs of gas and groceries, as well as the war in Iran, which have impacted the popularity of Trump and the Republican party.
Paxton, meanwhile, has focused on energizing the Republican base, historically outnumbering Democrats in Texas. He has campaigned with Trump, who has attacked Talarico as too progressive for the state, referencing past statements Talarico made about gender identity.
Paxton's campaign has also been weighed down by a series of ethical challenges. He was impeached in 2023 and acquitted by his own party on corruption charges, and a federal corruption investigation was closed without charges. Allegations of marital infidelity surfaced during his impeachment trial, and his wife is now seeking a divorce on "biblical grounds."
Talarico has frequently highlighted these ethical questions in an attempt to appeal to Republican and independent voters, often framing the race as a choice between the wealthy elite and the general public, rather than a strictly left-versus-right contest.
The influence of wealthy donors has become a significant theme, particularly after Elon Musk, a Texas resident, contributed $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund. This fund subsequently donated the same amount to Texas PAC, the largest contributor to Paxton's campaign. Musk also gave $10 million to the Lone Star Liberty PAC, which supports Paxton.
Talarico has used Musk's significant financial involvement to illustrate his argument about the corrupting influence of money in politics.
Paxton has countered by focusing on cultural issues, labeling Talarico as too liberal for Texas and pointing to Talarico's past remarks on gender and his naming of a favorite drag queen. Talarico has sought to moderate his past statements, calling them "cringey" and stating he opposes transgender athletes participating in women's sports if it compromises safety or fairness.
Paxton, known for his culture war stances, has leveraged his position as attorney general for partisan aims, including leading a lawsuit to overturn the 2020 election results, which Trump claimed without evidence were fraudulent.