U.S. farmers across the Midwest say they are facing an unusually sharp economic squeeze from falling export demand and rising input costs, but many rural voters continue to express support for President Donald Trump.
Since the spring, a tariff standoff between the United States and China has sharply reduced Chinese purchases of U.S. crops, striking at regions dependent on soybean and corn exports. Economists and farm groups warn the disruption has contributed to a rise in financial stress for family farms: Bloomberg data compiled in July showed a five‑year high in farmer small‑business bankruptcies, and the American Soybean Association has warned that current Chinese orders are well below historical levels for this point in the season.
Farmers and analysts described multiple channels of pressure. Tariffs and retaliatory levies have disrupted traditional trade flows, while related policies and trade frictions have pushed up the cost of some inputs. Potash, a key fertilizer ingredient imported largely from Canada, has become more expensive amid trade tensions, and equipment and supply‑chain uncertainties have raised operating costs for some producers.
"I'm in a little bit of a worried place," said Tim Maxwell, a 65‑year‑old grain and hog farmer near Moscow, Iowa. Despite concerns about weaker markets and mounting costs, Maxwell said he still supported the president. "Our president told us it was going to take time to get all these tariffs in place. I am going to be patient. I believe in our president."
Supporters of Trump point to a broader strategy: they say tariffs are meant to extract better long‑term deals and that short‑term pain will be offset by higher future returns from more favorable trade arrangements. The administration has also expanded federal assistance to agriculture. Over the summer, legislation tied to the White House increased subsidies for farmers by roughly $60 billion and strengthened federal crop insurance programs. In 2018 the administration provided a separate $28 billion assistance package during an earlier phase of the U.S.–China dispute.
President Trump signaled patience with the sector at times. In March he told farmers there would be an "adjustment period" after tariffs and said, "Our farmers are going to have a field day… to our farmers, have a lot of fun, I love you."
Still, experts warn of longer‑term damage from uncertainty. Christopher Wolf, an agricultural economics professor at Cornell University, said the scale of Chinese demand makes any withdrawal consequential. Michael Langemeier, a Purdue University economist, said the tariffs could eventually produce a better deal, but added that frequent policy shifts make it harder for trading partners and farmers to plan.
Observers of rural politics say the current level of economic pain has not translated into a meaningful erosion of Trump's support in the countryside. A Pew Research Center survey released this year found 53 percent of rural Americans approved of the president's job performance, compared with 38 percent nationwide. A separate ActiVote poll showed a small decline in rural approval from 59 percent in August to 54 percent in September, but analysts cautioned that small rural sample sizes limit the precision of such swings.
Nicholas Jacobs, a politics professor at Colby College and author of The Rural Voter, said the political alignment of rural America long predates Trump. Beginning in the 1980s, shifts in the economy and culture fostered a "rural identity" that often lines up with Republican appeals on issues ranging from trade skepticism to social and cultural grievances. Michael Shepherd, who studies rural politics at the University of Michigan, said intense partisan polarization has produced what he called "selective blame attribution": voters are more likely to excuse negative outcomes when policies come from their preferred party.
"A lot of people say he's just using tariffs as a bargaining chip, as a bluff," said Gil Gullickson, a South Dakota farmer who edits an agriculture magazine. "But I can say: history proves that tariffs don't end well." Even so, many farmers at gatherings such as the Iowa State Fair expressed willingness to wait for results. John Maxwell, a dairy farmer and cheese producer in Iowa, said farmers believed tariffs could restore fairer trade terms. "We think the tariffs eventually will make us great again," he said.
Farm leaders and some lawmakers have warned of a tipping point. In a letter to the White House, American Soybean Association president Caleb Ragland said U.S. soybean farmers were "standing at a trade and financial precipice." Former Senator Jon Tester, a Montana Democrat and third‑generation farmer, said tariffs had interrupted supply chains and driven up costs for equipment and supplies, warning that younger operators without savings face heightened risks.
Observers also point to spillovers beyond export markets. Reduced foreign purchases have left excess supplies in some commodity markets, depressing prices. Meanwhile, the reconfiguration of supply chains has prompted some Chinese buyers to purchase soybeans from Brazil instead of the United States, a switch that may not be quickly reversible even if tariffs ease.
Analysts said continued political support should not be mistaken for unconditional backing. Several farmers and commentators said patience had limits. Joan Maxwell, a dairy farmer from Davenport, Iowa, said her community was used to feeling overlooked and that many would give the president time — but only so long. "We're giving him the chance to follow through with the tariffs, but there had better be results. I think we need to be seeing something in 18 months or less," she said.
Farm policy scholars noted historical precedent for rapid political shifts if rural distress deepens. The 1930s Dust Bowl and the farm crisis of the 1980s both produced substantial changes in rural livelihoods and political behavior. None of the analysts interviewed predicted a recurrence of those extremes, but several cautioned that prolonged uncertainty and structural changes to trade relationships could produce durable economic and political consequences for farming communities.
For now, many farmers say they will hedge their economic worries with political loyalty and hope federal aid and trade negotiations produce a turnaround. Whether patience will endure depends in part on the pace of trade talks, the stability of input markets, and whether export partners resume historic buying patterns.
