Multiple oil tankers have executed sharp U-turns, rerouting away from the vital Bab al-Mandab Strait in the Red Sea due to escalating threats from Houthi rebels. Ship-tracking data indicates that the vessels were traveling to or from Saudi ports before changing course.
Naveen Das, a senior oil analyst at Kpler, told BBC Verify that if the Bab al-Mandab Strait becomes effectively closed, Saudi Arabia's alternative would be to transport oil around the southern tip of Africa to reach Asia, a significantly longer route. While the immediate impact on consumers may not be apparent, the ongoing conflict has increased the vulnerability of the global energy system to such disruptions. Das noted that a prolonged closure, even for a few weeks, could lead to higher freight rates, increased energy prices, and subsequently, higher consumer costs.
Ships in the vicinity of the Red Sea are reportedly broadcasting messages to deter potential attacks. According to MarineTraffic data, at least 50 vessels in the region are signaling that they have armed guards on board. This practice has become more common since the Houthis began targeting vessels during the conflict in Gaza.
Martin Kelly of the crisis management firm EOS Risk Group suggested that ship captains may fear misinterpretations by the Houthis, potentially leading to attacks if vessels are perceived to have previously called at a Saudi port. Kelly warned that damage to these large crude oil carriers could be catastrophic and likely result in onboard fatalities.
An alternative route for Saudi oil exists via the East-West Pipeline, which crosses the country from the Gulf coast to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. This pipeline bypasses the Strait of Hormuz but does not offer a direct solution for vessels needing to transit the Bab al-Mandab Strait. The current situation highlights the strategic importance of maritime chokepoints like the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Suez Canal in global energy logistics.