Talarico Holds Slim Lead Over Paxton in Texas Senate Race: Poll

Democrat James Talarico holds a narrow 2-point advantage over Republican Ken Paxton in the race for the U.S. Senate seat in Texas, according to a Fox News Poll released Thursday. The poll indicates that Democratic engagement and a Republican enthusiasm gap are significant factors in the contest.

Talarico has a net positive personal rating of 8 points, with 52% of likely voters viewing him favorably and 44% unfavorably. In contrast, Paxton's ratings are underwater by 18 points, with 40% favorable and 58% unfavorable. Republicans are six times more likely than Democrats to view Paxton unfavorably.

Across the state, 49% of Texas likely voters prefer a Democratic Senate, while 50% favor a Republican majority. Eight percent of self-identified Republicans indicated they prefer Democratic control of the Senate, while 1% of Democrats expressed support for Republican control.

Among registered voters, Talarico's lead widens to 7 points, an increase from a 3-point edge in July. The poll highlights divisions within the Republican party, with non-MAGA Republicans showing more support for Talarico (22%) than MAGA Republicans (4%). Additionally, 20% of likely voters who supported Republican incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the March primary are now backing Talarico.

Talarico garners strong support from Black voters (79%), moderates (65%), Hispanic voters (64%), and voters under 35 (62%). Paxton's strongest demographic support comes from White evangelical Christians (74%), White men without a college degree (65%), rural voters (57%), and voters aged 65 and over (55%).

Concerns about the candidates' ideologies are present among voters. An equal number of voters express concern that Talarico is too liberal (53%) as those concerned that Paxton is too closely aligned with former President Donald Trump (51%). Trump won Texas by nearly 14 percentage points in 2024, but his current job approval rating in the state is 44% approve to 55% disapprove. Fifteen percent of those who disapprove of Trump's job performance still back Paxton, compared to 9% of Trump approvers who support Talarico.

Economic issues are a primary concern for Texas voters, with 70% stating the cost of living will be extremely important to their Senate vote. Voters experiencing financial hardship are more likely to support Talarico, while those who feel they are getting ahead favor Paxton. Among the largest group of voters who feel they are holding steady financially, Paxton holds a narrow 3-point lead.

Nearly half of Texas voters consider Trump (48%) and immigration (47%) to be extremely important factors in their vote. Artificial intelligence technology is also a significant issue for one-third of voters (34%). Talarico leads among voters prioritizing the cost of living and AI, while Paxton leads among those focused on immigration.

In the gubernatorial race, incumbent Republican Greg Abbott holds a 52%-47% advantage over Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa. Over half of voters approve of Abbott's job performance as governor. Abbott also benefits from a modest crossover advantage, with 10% of Talarico supporters backing him for governor, compared to 3% of Paxton supporters backing Hinojosa.

The poll was conducted September 24-28, 2026, with 1,203 Texas registered voters surveyed. The margin of sampling error for the registered voter sample is ±2.5 percentage points, and for the subsample of 881 likely voters, it is ±3 percentage points.