Sweden's hard-Right opposition may not achieve its hoped-for breakthrough into government, as preliminary election results indicate a narrow victory for the center-Left bloc. With over 90% of votes counted, the Social Democrats, led by former Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, are projected to secure a three-seat majority in the 349-seat parliament.
This outcome, if confirmed, would represent a reversal of the country's rightward political trajectory over the past four years, a period that saw Sweden implement some of Europe's strictest asylum rules after previously being considered a welcoming destination for migrants. The Social Democrats remain Sweden's largest party, historically garnering around 28% of the vote, a share sufficient for a majority when allied with left-wing partners.
Left-leaning parties aligned with Andersson were projected to win 176 seats, while Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's hard-Right bloc was forecast to win 173 seats, according to the election authority. Kristersson, leader of the Moderates Party, heads a four-party coalition that has been supported by the hard-right Sweden Democrats, a party that had been promised cabinet positions in the event of a victory.
"If this result remains valid, Sweden will get a new government," Andersson told supporters on Sunday night following the initial results. The Sweden Democrats, which had aimed to join the government for the first time, are projected to have lost approximately 11 seats. The party, founded by individuals with Nazi sympathies in the 1980s, was largely ostracized until 2022, when it became the country's second-largest party by focusing on issues such as violent crime and immigration.
Despite the preliminary results, party leaders have exercised caution, with votes from 353 districts still uncounted and overseas ballots not expected to be tallied until Wednesday. Sweden's political landscape is characterized by two major blocs, each comprising four parties, making coalitions and minority governments a frequent occurrence.
In 2022, initial exit polls similarly suggested a center-Left victory that ultimately proved premature. Kristersson himself offered no indication of conceding after Sunday's election. The margin between the two blocs currently stands at just 0.45% of the vote. The formation of a new government could be a protracted process, especially if the center-Left victory is confirmed.
While Andersson is expected to become prime minister, the composition of her government remains uncertain. The Centre Party has stated its refusal to share power with the Left Party, which, in turn, insists on being part of any coalition. Andreas Norlen, the speaker of the parliament, described the potential government formation as a "complicated process."
The election's outcome is not anticipated to alter Sweden's pro-Western and pro-Ukraine foreign policy. The impact on immigration and economic policies is less clear. Andersson has pledged increased welfare spending and a fairer tax system, alongside a focus on social cohesion. However, differing views exist within the potential coalition regarding taxation, with the Greens and Left Party advocating for higher taxes on the wealthy, while the Centre Party opposes a "billionaires' tax." Andersson has also indicated that Sweden will maintain its current tough stance on immigration, a position previously advocated by the Left and Green parties.
Andersson previously served as Sweden's first female prime minister from November 2021, succeeding Stefan Löfven.