Sweden is holding a general election on Sunday, with voters deciding whether Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's conservative coalition will secure a second term or if the center-left Social Democrats, led by former Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, will return to power. The election for the 349-seat parliament, the Riksdag, will determine the country's next prime minister.
Kristersson has led Sweden since 2022 with a three-party center-right coalition that has maintained a parliamentary majority with the outside support of the Sweden Democrats. This anti-immigration party, with roots in the far-right, has moved towards the political mainstream. If the right-wing bloc is re-elected, the Sweden Democrats are expected to gain ministerial positions for the first time.
More than 8 million Swedes are eligible to vote in the election. Experts suggest the campaign has been largely focused on which parties can form a government, with substantive policy discussions on issues like healthcare taking a backseat. "People discuss who is going to be in government, and that’s what the election is about," said Zeth Isaksson, a sociologist studying electoral behavior at Stockholm University. He noted that crime and inflation, often key campaign issues, have decreased in Sweden.
The election features two major blocs: a four-party right-wing bloc and a four-party left-wing bloc. The primary question is which side can assemble a parliamentary majority, as individual parties require at least 4% of the vote to secure seats.
Nicholas Aylott, an associate professor of political science at Södertörn University, stated that it would be a surprise if the opposition parties, which have led in opinion polls for four years, do not win a majority. However, he suggested that the Social Democrats' "extremely defensive" campaign may have cost them support, while the right-wing bloc's efforts to portray unity might have had a "little impact."
A significant development in this election is the potential for the Sweden Democrats to enter the government. In 2022, the party garnered 20.5% of the vote, making it the largest party on the right. Kristersson announced in April that his Moderate Party would allow the Sweden Democrats into government if the right-wing bloc secures a majority, with Kristersson remaining prime minister even if the Sweden Democrats become the dominant party.
The Sweden Democrats were founded in the 1980s by individuals with ties to right-wing extremist groups. Under the leadership of Jimmie Åkesson since 2005, the party has moderated its rhetoric and expelled openly racist members, overseeing its growth from a fringe party.
Aylott noted that there is "trepidation, apprehension about the possibility of Sweden Democrat ministers," a sentiment the Social Democrats have attempted to leverage in their campaign.
Despite the rise of populist right-wing parties in other European countries, including a recent state election in Germany, Isaksson suggested that the Sweden Democrats "may have peaked to some extent."
Sweden joined NATO in 2024 as the alliance's 32nd member, a move initiated by Andersson's government after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and completed under Kristersson. The consensus in Sweden regarding support for Ukraine and opposition to Russia is nearly complete, reducing the perceived incentive for Russian interference in the election. The Psychological Defense Agency of Sweden indicated that the election is not a top priority for Russia's interference efforts.
However, a report published by Expo magazine shortly before the election alleged that a civil servant working for the Sweden Democrats had spread Russian state narratives on social media. This individual is reportedly the partner of Gustav Gellerbrant, who heads the party's coordination office with the government. Gellerbrant stated that her social media posts were taken out of context and intended as irony. He announced he would take parental leave to prevent the issue from overshadowing the election campaign. Kristersson commented that "there is no room for pro-Russian narratives in Sweden" and welcomed Gellerbrant's decision.