Swedes are heading to the polls in a high-stakes election where fears surrounding mass migration, crime, and the economy are dominating the political landscape. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s center-right party is slightly trailing the Social Democratic Party, led by former Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, according to polling data.
The election is taking place against a backdrop of increased concerns over gang violence, persistent unemployment, and pressure on public services, issues that have intensified the debate over immigration and integration. Foreign policy expert and author Daniel Schatz told Fox News Digital that "years of gang violence, Islamist extremism, persistent unemployment and pressure on public services have intensified the debate over whether integration has kept pace with immigration."
Following a recent victory by the AfD in a German state election, Sweden's hard-right Sweden Democrats are positioned to potentially enter the government. The anti-immigration party, which has shifted toward the political mainstream and is likely to seek cabinet posts, has so far supported the Kristersson government from the outside. Founded by activists with ties to far-right extremist groups, the Sweden Democrats, under leader Jimmie Åkesson since 2005, have toned down their rhetoric and removed racist members, a strategy credited with the party's rise from marginal status.
Sweden, once recognized as a model of the Western social welfare state, is experiencing economic strain. Governments from both the left and right have restructured welfare systems amid rising crime rates, though expectations for public benefits remain high. Schatz described Sweden's transformation from a "humanitarian superpower" to a "humanitarian basket case," noting that discontent with migration policies is widespread among both foreign-born and native-born residents. While shootings have declined, he added, "fewer shootings do not mean the integration problems are solved."
Prime Minister Kristersson’s government took power in 2022 amidst a significant increase in gun-related violence. In that year, Sweden recorded 391 shootings resulting in 62 deaths, according to The Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention. The homicide rate has been on the rise since 2013, with gun homicides contributing to a general increase. Sweden's homicide rate, approximately four deaths per million inhabitants per year, is considerably higher than the European average of about 1.6 deaths per million.
Immigration has become a central issue, closely linked to voters' concerns over crime and gun violence. In 2015, Sweden experienced a large influx of asylum seekers fleeing conflicts in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan, taking in over 160,000 individuals. After this wave strained its reception system, Sweden began tightening its borders, a trend that has been further amplified by the current government.
Nicholas Aylott, professor of political science at Södertörn University in Stockholm, noted that the connection drawn between increased immigration and rising crime has fundamentally altered Swedish politics. "Migration and law-and-order became much higher electoral priorities," he stated. The Sweden Democrats built their platform on these issues, prompting other parties to adapt their stances. Initially ostracized, the Sweden Democrats gradually gained acceptance as a legitimate partner by right-wing parties between 2018 and 2022. As the anti-immigration sentiment grew and the Sweden Democrats became more involved in policymaking, Sweden implemented stricter immigration and asylum policies. Although asylum claims have dropped and gun violence has seen a significant reduction, with 158 shootings and 44 fatalities to date in the current year, the government may still face a defeat against Andersson’s center-left coalition.