Super El Niño Could Cause Over 450,000 Deaths, Scientists Warn
A new report from the University of Chicago highlights the potential for significant global mortality due to the current El Niño event and urges urgent adaptation measures.
The current Super El Niño event could lead to approximately 451,000 deaths globally, with a substantial portion of those fatalities occurring in the coming six months, according to a new report from scientists at the University of Chicago. The researchers utilized climate models to project the impact of the phenomenon, which is characterized by anomalously warm surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and is expected to temporarily boost global temperatures.
Scientists warn that the projected warm temperatures are a "postcard from the future," indicating a potential future state of normal climate conditions in the coming decades. The mortality projections for the near term serve as a signal of where the world is headed if new adaptation investments do not materialize, the researchers stated.
Countries in the global south are anticipated to experience the most heat-related deaths in the next six months. Specifically, countries in the Sahel region, including Nigeria, Sudan, Niger, and Chad, are projected to see an additional 66,800 heat deaths between September and February compared to a typical year. In Southeast Asia, an additional 19,400 deaths are expected in the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia, with Indonesia facing a similar increase of 19,300 deaths. India could face 15,800 additional deaths, and Brazil may see 13,300.
The timing of these deaths is expected to vary by country. Between December and February, Nigeria and Indonesia could experience 15,400 and 10,400 excess heat deaths, respectively. Brazil and India are projected to see 8,000 and 7,400 additional heat-related deaths, respectively, over the same three-month period.
The current El Niño event began in June and is expected to persist into next year, developing at an unprecedented pace. Scientists project that global land temperatures will be approximately 1.2°C (2.1°F) above normal in the coming months, largely attributed to the Super El Niño.
The researchers are calling for urgent action in regions identified as high-risk for heat-related deaths. They note that solutions such as early warning systems, increased water availability, and broader access to cooling technologies already exist but have often been tested in limited regions. They emphasize the need to build evidence for effective interventions across diverse regions, climates, and health systems, and to invest in preparations and planning to adapt to a hotter future.