California and other Southwestern U.S. states may experience a significant increase in snowfall for the 2026-2027 winter season, according to a new forecast from OpenSnow. A developing El Niño pattern is expected to drive active storm cycles, with the heaviest snow accumulation anticipated after the new year.
The Central Sierra region of California holds the highest statistical probability for substantial snow accumulation, with destinations like Mammoth Mountain and China Peak identified as being in the forecast's bullseye. Meteorologist Alan Smith, who contributed to the forecast, indicated that a developing "super El Niño" is a key factor. The prediction draws upon historical data from strong El Niño winters, current oceanic and atmospheric conditions, and seasonal climate models.
While the Central Sierra is projected to receive the most snow, Northern California and the Tahoe region are also expected to experience warmer-than-average conditions. Although some storm fronts might bring warmer atmospheric rivers that raise snow levels, forecasters do not anticipate the extreme warmth seen in previous seasons.
OpenSnow's forecast projects above-normal precipitation across a wide area of the U.S., including the West Coast, Southwest, Southern Plains, Southeast, and East Coast, due to El Niño's tendency to favor a southern storm track. Conversely, areas along the northern U.S. border and western Canada are predicted to have below-normal snowfall, potentially making the Southwest and California prime snow destinations for the upcoming winter.
Southern California ski resorts, such as Mountain High and Snow Summit, historically see higher snowfall during strong El Niño events compared to neutral or La Niña winters. However, forecasters caution that strong El Niño events do not always guarantee record-breaking snowfall for every location. The 2015-2016 season, another significant El Niño winter, did not deliver the historic snow totals many had anticipated, particularly in Southern California.
