Teachers may be inadvertently hampering boys' chances of gaining admission to top universities by systematically predicting lower A-level grades for them compared to girls who achieve the same results, according to a new study.
The research, conducted by Cambridge and Bristol universities and analyzing data from over 350,000 students in England between 2017 and 2019, found a consistent discrepancy in predicted grades across 10 A-level subjects. This gap in predictions could disadvantage boys, as universities often use these figures in their admissions decisions.
Official statistics show that 15% of female pupils gain entry into a top-tier institution, compared to 11% of males. The study suggests that a 'pro-girl' bias in predicted grades might contribute to this disparity.
Researchers identified that girls were between 3% and 11% more likely than boys to have their grades overpredicted and between 15% and 41% less likely to have them underpredicted. On average, girls received predictions between one tenth and one fifth of a grade higher than boys for the same A-level subjects. For instance, in physics, girls were predicted approximately 0.17 of a grade higher, and in sociology, 0.13 of a grade higher.
Dr. Konstantina Maragkou, the study's lead author from Cambridge University, suggested that teachers might be influenced by factors such as pupils' motivation, diligence, and classroom engagement – areas where girls may often excel. This can lead to a 'halo' effect, where good behavior is perceived as an indicator of higher future grades. While acknowledging that teachers are unlikely to deliberately predict better results for girls, Dr. Maragkou stated, "They may be relying on an impression of student characteristics which can lead to gendered predictions."
These predicted grades are a significant factor in university admissions, and even small differences can impact a student's chances. "Differences of this size may appear small, but they can be enough to move a student across a grade boundary – for example, from a B to an A, or an A to an A*," Dr. Maragkou explained. She added, "Teachers are not supposed to base predicted grades on students' character, but they are probably not doing so consciously."
The findings, published in the journal Economics Of Education Review, highlight the need for careful consideration of how these predictions affect educational opportunities and access to selective institutions for young people.