A new analysis of payroll and test-score data covering more than 12,000 school districts concluded there is no clear link between higher education payrolls and improved student performance on the National Assessment of Educational Progress, commonly known as the Nation’s Report Card.
Open The Books, a pro-transparency organization, compared payroll changes from 2019 to 2023 for teachers, administrators and other staff with state NAEP rankings in 2019 and 2024. The group reported a slight negative correlation between overall education-related salaries and NAEP outcomes and highlighted several state-level case studies in its analysis.
The study cited Maine as an example: education payrolls in the state rose about 19% between 2019 and 2023 even as its NAEP ranking for fourth- and eighth-grade reading and math fell from 22nd nationally in 2019 to 38th in 2024. Maryland’s position on the NAEP tables dropped eight spots since 2019 despite the state launching a decade-long, $30 billion Blueprint for Maryland’s Future education plan in 2021. By contrast, Massachusetts recorded the highest NAEP scores in both 2019 and 2024 while its education payroll rose only about 4% during the same period.
Open The Books’ tally also identified unusually large individual education salaries in 2023: the 10 highest-paying education positions it found ranged from roughly $549,538 to $867,150, with the largest going to a safety or security official in Texas. The analysis did not separate teacher pay from increases in compensation for administrators or other staff.
"America’s parents have a right to know that sending more of their tax dollars to education salaries not only does not guarantee better education performance for their kids but is associated with worse student performance," Open The Books CEO John Hart said in a statement accompanying the report.
Economists and education researchers cautioned that the study’s findings do not establish causation and that several factors complicate interpretation. Eric Hanushek, an economist who has published research on school finance and student achievement, said he was not surprised by the reported correlation. He noted that rising shares of administrative staff and across-the-board salary increases do not necessarily improve outcomes.
"There’s a difference between increasing salaries across the board and selectively increasing salaries," Hanushek said. He pointed to districts that have tied higher pay to evaluations and incentives for highly effective teachers as examples where targeted compensation has been associated with gains. Hanushek cited Washington, D.C.; Dallas; and Houston as large districts that have pursued such strategies.
Advocates for higher teacher pay and pro-union groups point to research suggesting that better teacher compensation can help recruit and retain quality educators, which in turn can support student learning. Critics of performance-based pay argue that it is difficult to measure teacher effectiveness accurately because student achievement is influenced by many factors outside the classroom, including poverty, health, and community resources.
Tim Cavey, an education-focused commentator, warned that heavy reliance on student-performance measures for pay decisions can create perverse incentives for teachers and narrow instructional priorities. The Open The Books analysis also acknowledged potential confounders, including the lingering impact of COVID-19, which disrupted in-person schooling and learning for months or longer in many areas.
Education funding and school staffing have become prominent issues in state and federal politics since the pandemic, as lawmakers weigh proposals to increase resources for K-12 schools while demanding accountability for outcomes. The Open The Books report adds to a long-standing debate about whether more spending alone can raise student achievement or whether how money is allocated and managed is the critical factor.
Scholars who study education finance say more granular research is needed to parse the effects of specific spending categories, such as classroom teacher salaries, support services, school leadership, facilities and noninstructional staff. They also note the importance of distinguishing short-term disruptions from long-term trends.
The Open The Books work provides a broad snapshot that policymakers and education leaders are likely to cite in debates over budgets and pay policy. The analysis highlights associations between payroll growth and state NAEP rankings but does not demonstrate that payroll increases caused score changes. Researchers and education officials emphasize that decisions about pay and hiring should consider evidence on targeted interventions, local needs and measures beyond standardized test scores.
Open questions remain about the role of administrative growth, the effects of selective pay strategies, and the best ways to measure teacher effectiveness. As states and districts continue to spend additional federal and state dollars on K-12 education in the coming years, analysts say more detailed, longitudinal studies will be necessary to determine which investments most reliably support student learning.