Study Finds No Link Between Restrictions on Transgender Treatments and Teen Suicide Rates

Claims that restricting access to gender-affirming medical treatments for minors leads to an increase in teen suicide rates are not supported by data, according to a new study analyzing Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data from 23 states. The report, conducted by researchers at Do No Harm, examined suicide trends among adolescents in states that had implemented restrictions on puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones, and surgeries for individuals under 18, comparing them to states without such restrictions.

The study's findings indicate that in states with bans or limitations on these treatments, there was no discernible rise in suicide rates among minors. Researchers controlled for various factors, including broader trends in youth suicide and suicide rates among young adults just outside the age restrictions, to isolate the potential impact of the policies.

Proponents of gender-affirming care often cite a high prevalence of mental health issues, such as depression and anxiety, among transgender-identified youth. The CDC's 2023 Youth Risk Behavior Survey found that 72% of transgender-identified high-school students reported persistent feelings of sadness or hopelessness. Activists and some medical professionals argue that the failure to provide medical affirmation of a child's gender identity exacerbates these mental health challenges and can lead to increased suicide risk. They often point to studies suggesting that medical interventions improve mental health outcomes and that restrictions worsen them.

However, the Do No Harm study critiques many of the studies used to support these claims, asserting that they often rely on self-reported mental health data, lack untreated comparison groups, or suffer from significant participant attrition, making their conclusions unreliable. The researchers argue that their own study, by analyzing actual suicide rates in states that have enacted policies restricting treatments, offers a more objective assessment.

Starting in 2022, 23 states, representing 47% of transgender-identifying youth nationwide, began restricting some or all gender-affirming treatments for minors. This created what the researchers describe as a natural laboratory for studying the real-world effects of such policies. The analysis found no evidence that these state-level policies were associated with an increase in teen suicides.

The authors of the report state that their methodology and data are publicly available to allow for independent verification. They contend that the persistent assertion of a link between treatment restrictions and increased suicide risk, without robust evidence, amounts to a "manipulative bluff" used to pressure parents and policymakers into accepting medical interventions for minors. The study concludes that evidence, rather than emotional appeals, should guide decisions concerning the health and well-being of adolescents.