Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has surged by nearly 400% over the past two weeks, a development analysts suggest indicates Iran's weakening control over the critical waterway. Approximately 200 ships transited the strait last week, a significant increase from 150 the previous week and just 40 two weeks prior, according to data from the UK Maritime Trade Operations Center.
This heightened activity brings the total traffic along the passage route to about 20% of pre-war levels. In peacetime, roughly 20% of the world's seaborne oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Activity had previously diminished significantly after the Iran war began in late February.
Maritime intelligence firm Kpler reports that over 80% of liquid cargoes passing through the Strait of Hormuz in the last two weeks have either used the Omani route—a channel authorized by the UN International Maritime Organization and supported by the U.S., which Iran rejects—or have gone "dark," suggesting they are likely using the same corridor to avoid detection.
"It increasingly looks like Iran has at least partially lost control of the strait," Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler, stated. Dan Pickering, founder of Pickering Energy Partners, noted that the Omani route offers vessels a way to bypass potential tolls from Tehran.
Over the past seven days, 103 ships entered the strait and 89 exited, marking a 27% increase from the prior week when 76 ships entered and 75 exited. The change is more pronounced when compared to two weeks ago, when only 18 ships entered and 21 exited.
Most vessels transiting the strait in the recent period were registered in Panama and Liberia, though their ownership bases may differ. Approximately half of these vessels were oil tankers, with the remainder being dry cargo ships.
Despite the increase in traffic, five vessels were struck by Iranian projectiles in the past week, resulting in two injuries or fatalities. These vessels sustained damage but were not lost.
The U.S. has been employing tactics since May to escort oil tankers through Hormuz, utilizing methods such as turning off radars to facilitate undetected passage near the coast of Oman.
President Trump recently declared that the strait had been fully de-mined and reopened, expressing an intention to impose what he described as the "most crushing economic operation ever undertaken" on Iran in the form of sanctions. "The Hormuz Strait is open and operating," he stated on Truth Social.
In response, Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei threatened retaliation, stating, "If Trump wants to take action, we will retaliate in an earthquake-like manner." He also warned that countries cooperating with the U.S. in an economic war against Iran would be considered enemies and face repercussions.
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