Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen substantially compared to pre-conflict levels, according to reporting from the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) and intelligence firm Kpler. Automatic Identification System (AIS) data indicates that operators are increasingly opting for northern routes due to ongoing security concerns, projectile attacks, and heightened enforcement.
A UKMTO overview stated that AIS-detected transits are approximately 90% below pre-conflict baselines and have been declining since a peak in late June. Kpler reported on August 13 that maritime traffic through the strait saw a 44% day-on-day increase, with nine vessels utilizing the Iranian Unilateral Scheme and four routes remaining undetermined.
John Stawpert, Marine Director at the International Chamber of Shipping, told Fox News Digital that while traffic is "significantly lower," it has not completely halted. He described the situation as cyclical, with an uptick in vessel activity following ceasefire announcements, followed by a drop-off as those ceasefires break down. Stawpert also noted the persistent threat of mines in the waters, which impacts the ability of vessels to navigate safely.
"We need to bear in mind that there's human beings on board these ships," Stawpert said, emphasizing that the risks they face are "unacceptable" and a primary reason why the situation needs to end. He indicated that a resolution would require a "meaningful ceasefire that everybody has faith in," an end to Iranian threats, the cessation of the U.S. blockade against Iran, and clarity on which waters are safely navigable.
Control over the Strait of Hormuz has become a point of contention. President Donald Trump has asserted that the U.S. has "has total control over the Strait of Hormuz" and that "our Naval Blockade is being called, by everyone, ‘A WALL OF STEEL.’" He also claimed Iran's military and economy are weakened.
Conversely, Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority stated that claims of the strait being open "do not change the reality: the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked and will not be reopened until Iran’s conditions are accepted." Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi posted that the U.S. has "long miscalculated due to intelligence failures" regarding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.
The recently appointed leader of the Iranian Basij paramilitary unit also stated that the passage is "under Iran's control and management."
Stawpert clarified that control over the passage is "divided," with a northern route being "essentially Iranian controlled" and a southern route through Omani waters overseen by the U.S. Navy.
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, however, has highlighted the flow of oil from the strait. He stated on X that "the seven-day average for oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz is currently up to almost 9 million barrels per day." He added that when combined with oil flows via upgraded pipelines and export facilities, total oil flows are averaging approximately 15 million barrels per day, exceeding pre-conflict averages on some days. Wright suggested that private businesses may undercount ship numbers due to covert movements through the waterway, with the U.S. Department of Energy maintaining the most comprehensive data through coordination with the U.S. military.