Strait of Hormuz Traffic Dwindles Amid Middle East Tensions

The Strait of Hormuz saw a dramatic decrease in commodity vessel traffic over the weekend, with only a dozen vessels transiting the waterway compared to 35 the previous weekend. This decline, reported on Monday, coincides with persistent tensions in the Persian Gulf between the United States and Iran.

The Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint through which approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas passes, has experienced significantly reduced visible traffic. However, Middle Eastern producers are reportedly continuing to export oil using tankers that have their transponders switched off, circumventing tracking systems.

According to provisional data from analytics firm Kpler, four trackable ships exited the strait on Sunday: two tankers carrying refined oil products and two empty carriers for bulk goods and gas. Additionally, two small oil tankers entered the Gulf. On Saturday, five vessels departed the Gulf carrying agricultural products, liquefied petroleum gas, and fertilizer, while one empty very large gas carrier entered.

Prior to the outbreak of hostilities between the US and Iran on February 28, the strait typically facilitated the passage of around 125 large commercial vessels daily, encompassing tankers, gas carriers, bulkers, and container vessels.

Saudi Crude Exports Increase Amid Pipeline Disruptions

Despite the overall reduction in traffic, Saudi Arabia has increased its crude oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz this month and next. This adjustment follows attacks on Saudi Aramco’s East-West pipeline, which led to a halt in some shipments via Yanbu. Consequently, Saudi oil exports recovered to over 4 million barrels per day (bpd) in early September, a significant increase from the 2.4 million bpd recorded in August, the lowest figure since at least 2013.

Data from Kpler indicated that 13 tankers, primarily very large crude carriers transporting 34 million barrels of crude, exited the strait during the week of September 13. Saudi Arabia accounted for half of these exports, with Iraq contributing 35% of the volume.

Analysts from JPMorgan noted on September 18 that Middle Eastern oil flows have remained unexpectedly strong despite the disruptions to Saudi Arabia's pipeline. They reported that total oil flows averaged 17.1 million bpd over the preceding 10 days, only slightly below the 2025 average. The most significant shift observed was from Saudi Arabia, with satellite data showing its oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 2.9 million bpd over the past six days, a notable increase from just 700,000 bpd in August.