Strait of Hormuz Sees Worst Attacks of Iran War, Oil Flows Plummet
Twenty-four ships have been struck in the past two weeks, significantly reducing oil exports through the vital shipping route.
Ships navigating the Strait of Hormuz are experiencing the most severe attacks of the ongoing Iran War, with 24 vessels struck in the last two weeks. This surge in hostilities has caused oil exports to drop to less than half of their pre-war levels.
On Sunday alone, at least six ships were hit, marking the heaviest bombardment of tanker and cargo ships near the critical shipping route since the conflict began on February 28, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO). Reports from the affected vessels indicate they were struck by unknown projectiles while attempting to exit the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian state media has released videos depicting burning tankers in the water.
The intensified attacks coincide with Iran's efforts to reassert control over the strait, following a period where oil flow through the Persian Gulf had approached pre-war volumes, aided by U.S. military escorts.
According to the UKMTO and other European security sources, at least 18 ships were targeted between October 1 and October 11. Attacks are sometimes reported with a delay as vessels may disable their transponders to pass through the Strait of Hormuz undetected. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has previously warned that ships turning off their transponders would be targeted under the guise of alleged "illegal oil smuggling."
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank, suggested that the successful attacks indicate an improvement in Iran's targeting capabilities and that strikes could escalate.
"Iran may be developing its anti-ship missile capabilities to improve its ability to target vessels," the ISW stated in its analysis.
These strikes have led to a significant reduction in oil flow out of the strait. Maritime analyst Kpler reported that September's flow was nearly at pre-war levels, with 17 to 20 million barrels of crude passing through daily. However, during Sunday's attacks, only 2.9 million barrels transited the strait, and the average seven-day flow has fallen 43% below pre-war levels.
Global oil prices have shown volatility amid the renewed attacks, with the Brent crude benchmark trading above $105 per barrel. In the United States, the average price for gasoline has remained above $4.31 per gallon for the past month, while diesel was priced at $6.27 per gallon as of Tuesday, according to AAA.