Recent attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz have jeopardized a fragile peace framework between the U.S. and Iran, threatening a central provision of a recently brokered agreement. The memorandum of understanding (MOU), signed in June, stipulated that the strait would reopen, toll-free, for 60 days. Following its signing, commercial traffic in the strait increased significantly, from near zero to over 20 crossings daily, according to maritime tracking platform Winward.
Iran has not directly claimed responsibility for the recent attacks, but has implied involvement. Iranian state television reported on Monday that a tanker which caught fire had ignored warnings and was transporting gas from Qatar. If Iran was involved in the strikes, it would constitute a violation of the ceasefire agreed upon in the MOU.
Negotiations to further the MOU are currently stalled due to a six-day period of mourning for Iran's late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who died in U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that initiated the current conflict on February 28. Amidst the ongoing tensions, former U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Monday that Iran would need to "make a deal, or we’re going to finish the job."