The whereabouts and functional capacity of Iran's de facto Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, remain a subject of intense speculation five months after he reportedly assumed leadership following the death of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. His conspicuous absence from public life has led to multiple theories among intelligence agencies and fueled extraordinary rumors about his private life, while the U.S. has resumed air strikes on Iranian military sites amid escalating tensions.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several family members were killed in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike in Tehran on February 28. Mojtaba Khamenei, his eldest son and presumed heir, allegedly sustained severe injuries in the same strike. Since his reported ascension to Supreme Leader on March 9, Mojtaba has not made a public appearance. Instead of direct addresses, a state TV anchor read a statement attributed to him, accompanied by a still photograph. He also missed his father's funeral on July 4, citing security concerns, and broke with tradition by not delivering the customary Nowruz address on March 20.
"It is highly questionable whether Mojtaba Khamenei is currently alive or, at the very least, operating at full functional capacity," a former Mossad official with the Jerusalem Centre for Security and Foreign Affairs told an interviewer. The official noted that Mojtaba's failure to attend his father's funeral, a significant duty in Shiite tradition, suggests incapacitation rather than mere caution.
Intelligence agencies are operating under the assumption that the Iranian regime may still possess secure underground locations. Three main theories have emerged regarding Mojtaba's situation: First, he is alive and in hiding within Iran, but too injured to appear publicly. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has suggested Mojtaba is recovering, stating that interaction with the Supreme Leader is increasing, though this claim is met with skepticism. Second, he may have fled to Russia, a country known to shelter foreign figures. This theory is considered unlikely by many, as Iranian leaders are not typically seen as flight risks. Third, he is severely incapacitated, possibly in a coma, and unable to perform his duties. In this scenario, statements attributed to him are reportedly drafted by the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Ahmad Vahidi, and other generals. This third theory is considered the most probable.
The prolonged absence has led to Mojtaba being nicknamed "The Cardboard Leader." The regime's attempts to counter this narrative with AI-generated videos of Mojtaba have backfired, prompting many Iranians to believe the regime would use genuine footage if available. This has shifted the focus of intelligence gathering to human intelligence (HUMINT).
Mossad is reportedly leveraging its long-standing networks of agents within Iran to gather information, aiming to confirm if Mojtaba is alive rather than targeting him for assassination. Agents may seek to bribe individuals, intercept communications of senior regime figures, or hack into national infrastructure. If alive, Mojtaba is believed to be communicating through a secure, low-tech method involving couriers, similar to a system used by Osama bin Laden. He is thought to remain hidden and rely on a small group of trusted lieutenants, likely from the IRGC, to avoid detection by spy satellites. Mojtaba has historical ties to the IRGC and its affiliated Basij militia.
Regardless of Mojtaba's status, real power in Iran is widely believed to reside with the IRGC. This military, intelligence, political, and economic entity has become the dominant force in the country, overshadowing the clerical establishment. Power has effectively shifted to a junta comprising the IRGC's senior leadership, including Vahidi, and other key figures within the security establishment. While the IRGC may maintain a facade of taking orders from Mojtaba for continuity, it is seen as the true governing body. However, Iran remains faction-ridden, with diplomatic and governmental figures like Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and President Pezeshkian forming a distinct camp that appears to be distancing itself from Mojtaba.
Amidst these power struggles, rumors have also circulated about Mojtaba's private life, including allegations of him being gay. These rumors, amplified by figures like former President Donald Trump, stand in stark contrast to the regime's stance on homosexuality. However, within Iran, there appears to be widespread indifference to these rumors and even to Mojtaba's whereabouts, with many citizens feeling that the nature of the leadership, whether clerical or military, does not alter their daily struggles under the regime.