Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass has established an 11.8-point lead over City Councilwoman Nithya Raman in the city's mayoral runoff election, according to a poll released by Median Strategies. The survey, conducted from July 30 to August 5, found Bass leading Raman 50.2% to 38.4% among runoff voters. Approximately 11.4% of those polled remain undecided.
The poll results highlight the significant shift of voters who supported reality television personality Spencer Pratt in the June primary. Of those voters surveyed, 85.2% now indicate they will vote for Bass, compared to 6.8% for Raman, with 8% undecided. This bloc of voters could prove decisive in the November election.
Geographic and Demographic Leads
Bass demonstrates strong support in South Los Angeles, where she leads Raman 55.7% to 33.9%, and in the San Fernando Valley, with a 53.9% to 37.1% advantage. Raman holds a slight lead in Eastside and Northeast Los Angeles, an area that includes her City Council district, with 45.8% supporting her and 33.9% backing Bass. The candidates are tied in the Harbor/South Bay region at 38.8% each, where the highest percentage of undecided voters (22.4%) are concentrated.
Raman's Council Committee Removal
The poll emerges shortly after Raman was removed from her position on the City Council’s Housing and Homelessness Committee. The decision followed a 13-1 vote, with Councilmember Imelda Padilla stating that Raman's leadership on the committee was "unproductive" and characterized by being "all talk and no action."
Election Outlook
The poll of 560 voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The current polling suggests Bass is positioned to win outright if the numbers hold through Election Day, as she is currently just above the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff.
The voter turnout and alignment in November are expected to differ significantly from the June primary election, where Pratt's participation played a notable role.