Spain's Sánchez gambles on housing crisis, facing a complex electoral landscape

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has called for early elections on Nov. 29, a high-stakes gamble aimed at leveraging public discontent over the nation's housing affordability crisis. Sánchez, one of Europe's longest-serving progressive leaders, hopes to turn widespread anger over rising housing costs into electoral advantage for his Socialist party.

Polling in recent months had indicated that Sánchez's eight-year tenure might be nearing its end. However, the issue of housing affordability surged to the forefront of public consciousness following the televised eviction of an 87-year-old woman in Madrid last month. This event triggered significant street protests in the capital and other cities, providing Sánchez with a potential rallying cry focused on a social issue impacting millions of Spaniards.

Political analysts suggest that Sánchez is attempting to make the election about housing affordability, a strategy that could either galvanize his base or alienate older voters who own homes and may be wary of measures to curb real estate speculation. "We need to remember that the base of voters, both for the conservatives but also for the Socialists, are older and what we could call ‘Boomers,’ which were able to not just buy a home for themselves but also in many cases buy a second home that they now rent to supplement their pensions or leave to their children," said Montserrat Nebrera, a former conservative politician and political analyst.

Sánchez's government has also faced criticism regarding its handling of migration, particularly after tens of thousands of Moroccans streamed across the border into Spain's North African territory of Ceuta in July. The conservative Popular Party and the far-right Vox have seized on this influx, characterizing it as an "invasion" and using migration concerns to target the Prime Minister. Vox has previously formed coalition governments with the Popular Party in some regions, leading some analysts to believe that voters may have grown accustomed to its presence.

"I think that right now they are going to try to ride the polls and concentrate on demonizing the figure of Sánchez," said Alejandro Quiroga, professor of political science at Madrid’s Complutense University. The Prime Minister's political opponents have also pointed to legal cases involving Sánchez's wife, brother, and a former prime minister from his party, though they deny any wrongdoing.

In a similar gambit in 2023, Sánchez called national elections the day after his party suffered losses in regional and municipal elections. He successfully mobilized voters by stoking fears of a government that would include Vox, ultimately securing another term by forming a coalition government that included parties further to the left and striking a deal with Catalan separatists. This deal, which included an amnesty for those convicted in a 2017 secession bid, was controversial.

Sánchez's political career has been defined by navigating tight situations and making unexpected moves. In 2016, he regained leadership of the Socialist party after being ousted, and in 2018, he became prime minister through a no-confidence motion. His 2019 memoir, "A Manual of Resistance," details his political comebacks.

This election also presents a potentially significant role for former Catalan separatist leader Carles Puigdemont. His path back to Spain was recently cleared when a judge lifted his arrest warrant. Puigdemont, viewed as a hero by some Catalan nationalists and a reviled figure by others, is expected to influence the political landscape, potentially altering the focus of the election campaign.

"You called elections thinking they would be fought on socio-economic grounds, but here comes Puigdemont and he changes the script," said Oriol Bartomeus, a professor of political science at the Autonomous University of Barcelona.