Sales of soda have decreased by approximately 12% among recipients of the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program (SNAP) in 10 states that have implemented restrictions on sugary drinks and other junk food purchases. This decline is attributed to the "Make America Healthy Again" (MAHA) movement, championed by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and supported by President Trump.
A study conducted by the US National Bureau of Economic Research analyzed grocery purchases from over 15,000 food stamp households during the first half of 2026. The findings, reported by STAT News, indicated that about 20% of these households were in the 10 states with restrictions.
The restriction on soda purchases translated to an average reduction of 34 fewer 12-ounce cans per person annually. This initiative marks one of the first studies to examine the impact of state-level bans, which began with Utah and Texas on January 1 and April 1, 2026, respectively. Additional states launched similar programs, with 23 states receiving waivers from the US Department of Agriculture to enact these restrictions. However, bans in Colorado, Iowa, Nebraska, Tennessee, and West Virginia are currently suspended following a federal ruling.
The study's authors suggest that this reduction in sugary drink consumption could potentially lower the risk of developing type 2 diabetes by 2.6% over the next decade for affected individuals, potentially preventing around 34,000 new cases in the U.S. For context, a 2025 study published in Nature Medicine linked soda and other sweetened beverages to approximately 1 million new cases of heart disease and 2 million new type 2 diabetes diagnoses globally each year.
"It leads to a billion dollars of savings for the health care system," said study co-author Matt Notowidigdo, an economics professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. "If the goal is to reduce obesity, reduce the cases of diabetes caused by people being overweight and overconsuming sugary beverages, this is probably one part of a broader set of policies."
However, the study also revealed that SNAP recipients did not consistently shift their spending to healthier alternatives. Up to 39% of the money saved from not purchasing soda was redirected to other sugary beverages and fruit juices that were not subject to the restrictions. Notowidigdo noted, "If the goal is to reduce sugar consumption, you want the ban to be more comprehensive, not less."
The research was supported by a grant from Bloomberg Philanthropies. The organization's founder, Michael Bloomberg, previously advocated for a 16-ounce soda size cap in New York City in 2012 and has supported taxes on sugary beverages in the U.S. and internationally.