Social Care Reform Plan Could Take Decades and Cost Billions More Than Estimated, Expert Warns

Andy Burnham's pledge to reform social care with an NHS-style system that would be entirely free could take decades to implement and cost substantially more than the projected £18 billion annually, according to Sir Andrew Dilnot, who previously led a government review on the issue.

Burnham, speaking at the Labour Party conference, stated his intention to address the social care crisis, a commitment reportedly intensified by the recent death of his father, Roy, who had Alzheimer's. However, Sir Andrew cautioned that the timeline for implementing such a comprehensive system appears to extend beyond the next election, potentially into 2029 or later, depending on the outcome of a review by Louise Casey.

"If anything, change is now further away than had been implied previously," Sir Andrew said in an interview on BBC Radio 4's Today programme. He added that if Burnham's vision is to make social care entirely free, akin to the National Health Service, it would entail "a very substantial sum of money."

Sir Andrew expressed puzzlement over the claim that costs would remain below £18 billion a year. "If we were to make social care free in the same way that health care is largely free then I think we would be talking about an amount of money very much in excess of £18 billion," he stated. He contrasted this with a potential Scottish model, which might cost around half that amount but would likely not meet Burnham's stated goal of preventing individuals from losing their entire assets to care costs.

The economist, known for his 2011 review that proposed an £80,000 cap on care costs, warned that Burnham's plan might be "envisaging something that could take many years, even many decades before it came to fruition." He suggested that any move towards such a system would not be realized quickly.

Burnham had indicated that funding models, possibly including a 10 percent "death tax" on inheritances or changes to the state pension 'triple lock,' were still under consideration. He maintained that the final decision on funding would await the results of Louise Casey's review and would be included in the next Labour manifesto, signaling a commitment to addressing the issue despite potential unpopularity.