Shingles Rates Plummet in Younger Adults, Study Suggests Link to Chickenpox Vaccine

Shingles rates have seen a dramatic decline among younger adults in the United States, a trend researchers attribute to the widespread adoption of the childhood chickenpox vaccine. The findings, stemming from an analysis of electronic health records for over 85 million adults, reveal a substantial drop in shingles diagnoses for the first generation eligible for routine childhood vaccination.

The most pronounced decrease was observed between individuals born between 1991-1995 and those born between 1996-2000. This cohort experienced a 62% reduction in shingles diagnoses. Specifically, approximately 46 out of every 10,000 individuals in the older group were diagnosed with shingles, compared to just 17 out of every 10,000 in the younger group.

Shingles, caused by the varicella-zoster virus—the same virus that causes chickenpox—can remain dormant in the body and reactivate later, particularly during periods of stress or weakened immune response. While shingles diagnoses typically increase sharply with age, the study highlights a significant decline beginning with those who were eligible for the chickenpox vaccine in the mid-1990s.

"This is the pattern we would expect if childhood chickenpox vaccination lowers the risk of developing shingles later in life," stated Kersten Bartelt, a research clinician and study author. The varicella vaccine uses a weakened form of the virus, which is less likely to reactivate and cause shingles in adulthood.

The study, conducted between January 2017 and June 2026 and published on October 2, 2026, also noted that shingles is generally more common in older populations. For instance, about 182 out of every 10,000 people born between 1968 and 1975 were diagnosed with shingles, in contrast to seven out of every 10,000 born between 2006 and 2008.

Researchers acknowledged certain limitations in the study, including the inability to confirm individual vaccination histories. The observational nature of the study means it demonstrates associations rather than direct cause and effect. Additionally, healthcare disruptions related to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2021 might have influenced diagnosis rates and potentially skewed the results.

Despite the strong association, experts recommend that eligible individuals continue to receive the shingles vaccine. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advises shingles vaccination for adults aged 50 and older, and for certain immunocompromised adults aged 19 and older, including those who previously received the varicella vaccine.

Future research is needed to definitively confirm the link between childhood vaccination and long-term shingles outcomes. Healthcare providers encourage individuals experiencing a painful, blistering rash to seek prompt medical evaluation, as shingles can occur in younger adults. The study suggests that if vaccination trends continue, the protective effect against shingles may extend as these cohorts age.