Severe thunderstorms are poised to strike the U.S. East Coast, bringing the threat of dangerous flooding and tornadoes to more than 32 million people from Connecticut to Virginia. The storms, which began impacting areas Wednesday night, are expected to intensify Thursday evening along the Interstate 95 corridor, including major metropolitan areas like New York City, Philadelphia, and Baltimore.
A flash flood threat is the primary concern, with a Level 3 out of 4 risk issued for central and northern New Jersey and New York City for Thursday afternoon and evening. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has designated a widespread Level 2 out of 4 risk of flash flooding along the I-95 corridor. Rainfall rates could reach up to 2 inches per hour in some locations, exacerbating flooding risks, particularly in urban areas and on already saturated ground.
In addition to the flood threat, a Tornado Watch has been issued for over 15 million people across parts of Delaware, the District of Columbia, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, valid until 10 p.m. ET. The storms are advancing eastward after previously affecting parts of Arkansas and Kentucky, with Indiana still recovering from recent deadly flooding.
The weather system is driven by a cold front moving east from the Ohio Valley, trailed by an area of low pressure. This front is expected to stall along the Northeast coast and into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas through Thursday evening. Intense thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts, with a possibility of tornadoes forming, particularly around Philadelphia and central New Jersey if supercell thunderstorms develop.
As the storms move into Friday, a stalled cold front is anticipated to trigger more storms over Virginia, North Carolina, and coastal Maryland. The Level 2 flood threat is projected to shift south, affecting areas from southern Delaware to central South Carolina. Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches are expected across a broad area stretching from North Carolina up to coastal New Jersey, with localized amounts reaching 3 to 5 inches.
The National Weather Service issued a Flood Watch for New York City, most of New Jersey, and far southeast Pennsylvania, including Philadelphia, highlighting the potential for significant rainfall and urban flooding. The heaviest rainfall is forecast for areas currently experiencing severe to extreme drought conditions across the Carolinas and Virginia.
By Saturday evening, rainfall is still expected to persist in the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Forecasters noted that if the current predictions hold, the flash flood risk could be upgraded in the coming days. As the weekend progresses, there is a possibility that the developing low-pressure system could push more rainfall north into the I-95 corridor, though this remains uncertain.