Serbia's Vučić Echoes Orbán's Downfall, Analysts Say

The recent defeat of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić in his country's elections bears striking resemblances to the fall from power of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, according to observers. Both leaders, who had been in office for over a decade and were seen as formidable political figures, faced opposition victories attributed in part to enhanced election monitoring and the mobilization of voters.

In Serbia, the "Student List" secured 140 seats in the 250-seat parliament, a result that mirrors the 140 seats won by Péter Magyar's Tisza party in Hungary's 199-seat parliament. This numerical similarity has been noted by analysts, drawing further parallels between the two political events.

Prior to the Serbian election, Hungarian civic action group DE sent election monitors to work alongside Serbian student movement representatives, sharing techniques and experiences from Hungary's elections. A key strategy involved identifying polling districts where unusually high vote counts for the governing party in past elections suggested potential voter intimidation or fraudulent practices, such as "chain voting." On election day, groups of masked individuals, identified as Vučić supporters, were observed near polling stations. Mobile teams of monitors, equipped with cameras, documented these activities, aiming to deter fraud and intimidation.

Orbán and Vučić, both nationalist leaders with close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, have fostered strong political and business connections. Their collaboration includes joint business ventures, such as the planned Hungarian purchase of Serbia's Nis oil refinery, and infrastructure projects like the high-speed railway between Belgrade and Budapest, financed by China. The leaders have also shown support for Milorad Dodik, the separatist leader of the Bosnian Serbs.

Following the Serbian election results, there has been speculation that Vučić consulted with Orbán on election night, with suggestions that the Hungarian Prime Minister advised against the use of force. While Vučić denied speaking with Orbán before conceding defeat, he acknowledged a later conversation. Orbán declined to comment when contacted by the BBC.

Both Orbán and Vučić, who are facing allegations of corruption and abuse of power, may now confront legal challenges. Serbia's special prosecution service for organized crime, JTOK, and Hungary's newly established special prosecutors' office, NVVH, possess similar powers that could potentially be used against them. The collapse of a railway station canopy in Novi Sad in November 2024, which killed 16 people and was attributed to corruption and negligence, acted as a catalyst for the Serbian student movement. Hungarian companies linked to Orbán were reportedly involved in the construction project.

"There was a perception in Europe that the longer the Orbán and Vučić regimes stayed in office, the stronger they got," Áron Timar, founder of the DE civic action group, told the BBC. "In fact, they got weaker. And once society found its voice and rose up, there was no way of stopping it."