Serbia's Student Movement Faces Steep Path to Reform After Election Victory

Serbia's vibrant youth movement has achieved a significant electoral victory, unseating long-time leader Aleksandar Vucic, but the path ahead is fraught with challenges as the coalition prepares to govern. The movement, characterized by its leaderless structure and lack of experienced politicians, has pledged to tackle deep-seated corruption, restore media freedom, and uphold the rule of law, which they argue have been eroded during Vucic's 14-year tenure.

Despite a strong mandate for change, the new government will face numerous obstacles. High public expectations and years of growing discontent create a sense of urgency. The process of forming a new government is also expected to take weeks, involving legal appeals and potential rerun elections at specific polling stations before final results are certified and Parliament is inaugurated. Policy changes can only commence after the new government is officially in place.

Navigating the Transition

Preliminary results indicate the Students’ List will hold a majority of 140 seats in the 250-member Parliament, while Vucic's Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) is projected to secure 104 seats. The transition is further complicated by a pending presidential election, triggered by Vucic's recent resignation from that office to lead the SNS parliamentary ticket. This necessitates a separate vote to elect his successor as head of state.

Public Discontent and Media Scrutiny

Following the election results, spontaneous celebrations in Belgrade saw some crowds engaging in confrontations, including stoning police and dismantling a camp associated with Vucic loyalists. Incidents also occurred at pro-Vucic media outlets, such as Informer television, which had actively campaigned against the student protesters. The storming of Informer's offices by individuals including Dijana Hrka, a mother of a victim from a recent train station tragedy that catalyzed the protests, highlights the palpable anger and polarization within the country. Vucic condemned the violence and warned his supporters could "self-organize."

Media expert Snezana Milivojevic noted the sensitivity surrounding the media landscape, stating that while some state-run media are undergoing spontaneous changes, private broadcasters like Informer have continued to air pro-Vucic propaganda. The student movement and the European Union mission in Serbia have appealed for calm and patience, with the students vowing to reform the media through institutional means rather than through attacks.

Tackling Corruption and Institutional Reform

The student movement's anti-corruption platform, central to its campaign, will require extensive efforts. Corruption is believed to be deeply embedded across Serbian society, stemming from decades of partisan appointments, cronyism, bureaucratic complexities, and a lack of oversight. The movement has promised significant institutional reforms, including overhauling the police force and judiciary to prioritize meritocracy and integrity. Proposals include establishing a police unit accountable to independent prosecutors, barring corrupt officials from office, and reviewing past government projects, all of which will require considerable time and effort.

Foreign Policy Considerations

The movement has deliberately avoided divisive foreign policy issues during protests, including Serbia's EU membership aspirations and its traditionally friendly relations with Russia. Vucic's administration pursued a balancing act between the West and Russia, a policy that contributed to stalled EU accession talks when Serbia refused to join sanctions against Moscow over the war in Ukraine. While some within the Students' List have indicated that the policy on sanctions may not change, this could disappoint supporters eager for Serbia to align more closely with the EU. Relations with the West have been strained since the 1999 NATO bombing and Kosovo's 2008 declaration of independence, recognized by the US and most EU nations. Despite historical complexities, the EU's enlargement commissioner has expressed readiness to support Serbia's new government on its European path.