Scottish Labour Faces Uphill Battle to Regain Relevance

The incoming leader of Scottish Labour faces a daunting task, as the party grapples with diminished membership, low public awareness, and a significant electoral deficit.

The contest to succeed Anas Sarwar will conclude this weekend, with MSPs Michael Marra and Joe Fagan the final candidates. The victor will lead a parliamentary group of just 17 Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs), tying them with Reform UK as the second-largest party in Holyrood, but still far behind the Scottish National Party (SNP).

Pollster Mark Diffley described the situation as the party having "become a bit of an irrelevance." He highlighted that a majority of the public are unaware of the leadership contest and that many do not know either candidate. This lack of recognition represents a primary hurdle for the new leader.

Diffley suggested three key priorities for the next leader: re-establishing relevance, cultivating a relationship with the UK Prime Minister, who is currently viewed favorably in Scotland, and articulating appealing policies. Some party insiders agree with this assessment, acknowledging the challenging "inbox" the new leader faces.

One suggested strategy is to emulate the Scottish Greens' approach of having their policy ideas adopted by the ruling SNP. This could involve offering support for SNP budgets in exchange for concessions on issues such as public transport or care worker wages. Such an approach would mark a shift from the party's past tendency to oppose or abstain on budgets.

The new leader will also need to navigate the complex constitutional question of Scottish independence. Recent comments from UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham suggesting a scenario where a second independence referendum could be on the table have created political ripples. Both Marra and Fagan have, at times during the leadership contest, struggled to clearly define Scottish Labour's stance on this issue.

Despite the challenges, the relatively small size of the parliamentary group may simplify internal management. This leadership contest has not been overly acrimonious, and the ideological differences between Marra and Fagan are not vast. The loser is unlikely to create significant opposition for the winner, though one former leadership contender, Monica Lennon, described the party atmosphere as "quite nasty" during her unsuccessful bid to reach the final ballot.

Ultimately, the overwhelming concern for the incoming leader will be the overall state of Scottish Labour and its sustained decline in Holyrood. The party is in a difficult position, and reversing this trend is seen as a significant but not impossible undertaking.