The Scottish Conservatives have initiated a public campaign to protest proposed legislation that would permit long-term prisoners to be released early, arguing the plans endanger public safety and disregard victims' fears. The campaign, titled 'Stop the SNP jailbreak,' urges the Scottish National Party (SNP) government to abandon the proposals.
According to Stephen Kerr, justice spokesman for the Scottish Conservatives, the proposals were introduced on the final day before the Scottish Parliament's summer recess, an action he described as an attempt to evade scrutiny. Kerr stated that the SNP government's plan to allow early release for violent and sexual offenders is a response to their failure to adequately address prison capacity issues. "The public and victims of crime are rightly terrified about what will happen if these proposals get the green light," Kerr said, adding that decades of "SNP incompetence" have led to a crisis in Scotland's justice system, where criminal interests are prioritized over those of victims.
The proposed reforms would allow 'long-term' offenders denied parole to be automatically released after serving two-thirds of their sentence, with the final third spent in the community. New Justice Secretary Neil Gray revived this plan last month, initiating a consultation period. The reforms also seek to redefine 'short-term' prisoners as those sentenced to less than five years, potentially making more serious offenders eligible for automatic release after 30% of their sentence. Furthermore, there would be a presumption against prison sentences of two years or less.
The Scottish Conservatives argue that these changes could lead to the early release of convicted rapists and violent criminals. Online campaign materials emphasize the belief that prisoners should serve their full sentences and that public safety should take precedence over criminal leniency.
Official statistics indicate that in 2023/24, the average sentence for rape or attempted rape was approximately seven years. Under the proposed two-thirds release plan, individuals serving this average sentence would be released about 855 days earlier, after roughly four-and-a-half years. The extension of the 'presumption against' jail sentences could also result in an estimated 1,500 offenders annually avoiding prison, including those convicted of robbery, sexual assault, serious assault, attempted murder, or death by dangerous driving.
This is not the first time such a proposal has faced opposition. When the SNP government first suggested early release for long-term prisoners two years ago, they withdrew the plan following widespread warnings about the risks to women, children, and young people. In response to the current consultation, Scottish Women's Aid described the proposals as a "regressive step in the commitment towards victim support" and warned of risks to women, children, and young people. Children First expressed concerns that blanket changes would erode public trust in the justice system and called for a prison governor's veto power to prevent the release of high-risk individuals. Social Work Scotland also cautioned of an "'higher level of risk' for a significant number of prisoners who hadn’t been considered suitable for parole halfway through their sentence," in addition to resource concerns.