Scottish Conservatives Find Glimmer of Hope Amidst Political Volatility

Russell Findlay, leader of the Scottish Conservatives, approaches his upcoming conference speech in Birmingham with a sense of optimism, finding breaks in the political clouds that have recently overshadowed the party. This sentiment emerges after a significant downturn in the Holyrood elections, where the Scottish Conservatives dropped from second to fifth place, losing more than half of their Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs).

The party's performance in the May elections was significantly impacted by the UK Conservative Party's broader rout in the 2024 general election, which damaged the party's brand. Coupled with the rise of Reform UK, the primary objective for Findlay had been to stem losses. Opinion polls had indicated a potentially devastating outcome for the Scottish Conservatives, facing a challenge on their right for the first time. Despite this, securing 12 MSPs was considered a better result than initially feared.

Findlay has faced no internal criticism, as it's widely acknowledged he navigated a difficult political landscape effectively. The current volatile political climate, however, presents opportunities. Key among these are the growing popularity of UK leader Kemi Badenoch and the challenges facing opposing parties.

Challenges for Opponents

Both Scottish Labour and Reform UK, currently holding 17 MSPs each, find themselves at a crossroads. Scottish Labour's May results could be seen as worse than the Conservatives' given the party's prior expectations of winning.

While Labour's new leader may benefit from not having Keir Starmer in Downing Street, the current Labour government faces the necessity of making unpopular decisions, such as altering the pensions triple lock, to address fiscal imbalances. Carrying the burden of a struggling UK government has historically been a significant disadvantage for Scottish Labour leaders.

Domestically, the new Labour leader is adopting a less confrontational stance towards the SNP government, with whom Labour generally shares instincts on tax and spending. Labour has also softened its opposition to a second independence referendum, a move aimed at attracting moderate pro-independence voters that risks alienating unionists. As the Scottish National Party (SNP) government increases its focus on constitutional matters, pro-UK voters may increasingly view the Scottish Conservatives as the most reliable party.

Reform UK presents mixed messages on the Union. Its Scottish leader's stance on independence during the election was perceived as weak, and a recent walkout from a parliamentary debate on the subject was seen more as a publicity stunt than substantive opposition. Reform faces a central dilemma: to position itself as a potential alternative government or as an anti-establishment disruptor. Struggles to make an impact in the former role, particularly in parliamentary questioning, have been noted.

The party's reliance on performative actions like walkouts or no-confidence motions is not a sustainable strategy for gaining attention. Furthermore, Reform faces internal issues, including divisions within its UK leadership and scrutiny surrounding Nigel Farage, alongside the emergence of the new Restore party. Reform must now contend with the same challenge it posed to the Conservatives: how to counter a threat from its right.

Capitalizing on Badenoch's Appeal

Findlay aims to leverage his party's most significant asset, Kemi Badenoch. The Scottish Conservatives' victory in the June Westminster by-election in Aberdeen South provided a considerable boost to both UK and Scottish party morale. The campaign highlighted Badenoch's ability to connect with voters, particularly on issues like the future of North Sea oil and gas.

Her direct communication style has resonated across the UK. Badenoch's popularity, which outpaces her party's, is attributed to her authenticity and straightforwardness. Strategists hope that increased exposure for Badenoch will lead to a continued modest increase in the party's polling numbers.

Findlay maintains a strong working relationship with Badenoch, and they speak regularly. Both leaders embarked on significant rebuilding efforts within weeks of taking office following the 2024 general election. However, the Scottish party cannot solely depend on Badenoch's appeal; it must also present itself as a pragmatic center-right alternative to the SNP government.

The majority of the Scottish Conservatives' MSPs have prior parliamentary experience, which is crucial for effectively shadowing SNP ministers. The party needs all its members to be actively engaged to maximize its impact.

Addressing Public Concerns

Although the SNP government, supported by the Green Party, appears numerically secure, May's electoral success was largely a rejection of its opponents rather than a strong endorsement of the Nationalists. The SNP's vote share decreased significantly in 2021, but the fragmentation of the pro-Union vote allowed them to retain most seats.

Scots are facing higher taxes under the SNP while experiencing a perceived decline in public services. The significant budget deficit is a major concern, largely driven by rising welfare spending. The Scottish Conservatives have been the only party advocating for curbs on this spending to stimulate economic growth and allow for tax reductions.

Polling suggests that public opinion aligns with the Conservatives on issues like support for new oil and gas drilling. The justice system is another area of public concern, with a perception that the SNP is lenient on offenders, fueled by rising crime rates and early prisoner release programs. The Scottish Conservatives' opposition to these policies appears to resonate with the public.

Findlay's challenge is to translate this public approval of policies into electoral gains, starting with the council elections next spring. He acknowledges the difficult path ahead and the need for the party to amplify its voice. Nevertheless, there is a viable route for the Scottish Conservatives to re-establish themselves as the most effective opposition force, even if not the largest.