The contest to succeed former Speaker Nancy Pelosi in California's 11th Congressional District has seen a dramatic shift in favor of State Sen. Scott Wiener, according to recent predictions. Prediction markets indicated Wiener's odds of winning surged to 94% on Tuesday, significantly outpacing his rival, San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan, who has received Pelosi's endorsement.
Despite Pelosi's backing, Chan's support has faltered, with prediction markets like Kalshi showing Wiener's chances climbing from 82% to 94% within a six-hour period on Tuesday. Another market, Polymarket, also indicated a wide gap, listing Wiener at 83% and Chan at 19%.
A University of Southern California poll released on October 22nd showed Wiener leading Chan 47% to 41%, with 9% of likely voters undecided. The poll of 454 likely voters had a margin of error of 4.6 percentage points, placing the candidates within that margin.
Pelosi, who has held the San Francisco-based seat since 1987, has been actively involved in the race, endorsing Chan. However, this endorsement has not translated into a clear advantage for Chan. The race represents the first significant battle for Pelosi's former seat since her retirement announcement.
While both Democratic candidates align on major national issues, including opposition to former President Donald Trump and support for immigrant and LGBTQ+ rights, they represent different wings of the city's Democratic Party. Wiener is seen as a more establishment Democrat, while Chan has garnered support from labor unions and progressive activists.
Reports suggest a strained relationship between Pelosi and Wiener, potentially stemming from his early interest in succeeding her. Pelosi's endorsement of Chan was viewed by many as a direct response to Wiener's aspirations, setting up a closely watched contest for the influential seat.