A geophysicist who accurately predicted a major earthquake in Colombia has issued a warning that California could be at heightened risk for a devastating seismic event in the coming months. Stefan Burns, who has a history of forecasting earthquakes, stated that California is "in the crosshairs" for a significant earthquake along vulnerable faults, including the San Andreas.
Burns explained that the energy released from large earthquakes can travel through the Earth, increasing stress on geological faults thousands of miles away. He pointed to the recent magnitude 7.4 earthquake in Colombia on August 10, which killed at least 132 people, as a potential trigger. This event, he believes, could lead to a "chain reaction" affecting seismic zones in North America.
"California is super overdue," Burns said during a YouTube livestream, noting that Southern California might face greater risk. He specified a critical window of six to 12 months following the Colombian quake, a timeframe where major earthquakes have historically occurred in close succession. While he identified California as a primary concern, Burns also noted the potential activation of the New Madrid Seismic Zone in the Midwest.
Burns drew a historical parallel to a sequence of powerful earthquakes between December 1811 and February 1812. This series in the US Midwest was followed weeks later by a major earthquake in Venezuela and then, months later, by two significant quakes in California in December 1812, one near the San Andreas Fault and another in Santa Barbara.
Applying this pattern to current seismic activity, Burns anticipates an increased probability of a magnitude 7.0 or stronger earthquake in the US through the remainder of 2026 and into early 2027. He previously indicated that the Pacific Ring of Fire, which includes the US West Coast, is due for a balancing of seismic activity, with recent major quakes occurring on the Asian side.
The US Geological Survey (USGS) has previously reported that approximately 159.2 million people in the US live in areas exposed to "very strong" shaking, an increase from previous estimates. California remains a notorious earthquake hotspot, but the USGS hazard model also highlights risks in regions like the New Madrid Seismic Zone, which spans parts of Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Illinois. The agency also noted that critical infrastructure like bridges in major cities could be severely impacted, disrupting emergency services and transportation.
Burns's predictive method involves observing seismic energy transfer and historical patterns, acknowledging that earthquake forecasting is not an exact science. The USGS has outlined potential scenarios, such as a magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault near Los Angeles, which could result in thousands of deaths and injuries and billions in damages. A 2025 blog post from the Geological Society of America warned that a magnitude 7.6 earthquake in the New Madrid Seismic Zone could cause over $43 billion in damage and potentially result in more than 80,000 fatalities.