San Jose, California, is experiencing the most significant decrease in its child population nationwide, as families increasingly leave major urban centers for more affordable areas. Between 2015 and 2024, the number of residents under 18 in San Jose, a hub for the technology industry, fell by 20%. The decline is even more pronounced for the youngest age group, with children under 5 decreasing by 34% in the same decade.
This trend is not isolated to San Jose. Los Angeles saw a 16% drop in its under-18 population from 2015 to 2024. Nationwide, the number of children living in cities has declined by 6% over the past ten years. Of the 25 cities with the largest percentage decrease in children, six are located in California.
San Diego reported a 14% decrease in its under-18 population, while Fresno and Sacramento experienced 5% and 4% declines, respectively. San Francisco also saw a 3% reduction in its child population. These figures are based on an analysis of cities with more than 500,000 residents.
Falling birthrates across the country, which have seen a 9% decrease in births over the last decade, are a contributing factor. However, the COVID-19 pandemic appears to have accelerated this migration. Families have sought more space and lower living costs, leading them to explore options outside of expensive urban environments. As noted by Connor O’Brien, a fellow at the Institute for Progress, "Families had more exit options and they took them."
In contrast to these declining urban centers, some cities, particularly in the Sun Belt region, have seen an increase in their child populations. Fort Worth, Texas, and Jacksonville, Florida, each recorded an 11% rise in their under-18 residents over the decade. Washington, D.C., and Seattle also experienced growth, with their child populations increasing by 10%.