Russian Strategist Warns of Nuclear Escalation in Europe

A prominent Russian foreign policy strategist has issued a stark warning, suggesting that Russia would resort to nuclear weapons and leave "little left" of some European countries if they continue to support Ukraine. Sergei Karaganov, honorary chairman of Russia's Council for Foreign and Defence Policy, stated that Moscow would initially employ conventional weapons but escalate to nuclear attacks if Europe did not surrender.

Karaganov dismissed the possibility of retaliation from Britain or the United States, asserting that "there will be no response from Europe" and that "the Americans are not that crazy."

These pronouncements come as Russia demands that European nations cease military and financial aid to Kyiv, which is resisting Russia's full-scale invasion. "If they continue this war, a European war with American help, against Russia, on Ukrainian territory, sooner or later we'll feel the need to escalate," Karaganov told the BBC. "According to my scenarios, the first series of blows will be conventional. But if Europe does not surrender, unfortunately, we will have to go nuclear. There will be little left of some European countries."

Karaganov also criticized his government for not acting harshly enough, indicating that Moscow is intensifying its attacks to undermine Ukraine's viability as a state. The remarks align with ongoing tensions between Russia and European countries, which Western officials accuse Moscow of escalating through cyber-attacks, sabotage, and drone incursions.

Recently, a drone carrying explosives was discovered near Ukrainian cargo planes at Leipzig airport in Germany. Western officials view such incidents as part of a broader Russian campaign operating in the "grey zone" between peace and war.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has accused Europe of waging war against Russia, citing the supply of British and European weapons to Ukraine, which are used to strike Russian territory. He argued that Moscow is justified in destroying these weapons, reflecting the Kremlin's narrative that the conflict is a European war against Russia, despite Russia's 2022 invasion.

President Vladimir Putin has given little indication of halting the fighting, maintaining confidence in a military victory despite significant battlefield losses and economic damage.

These comments follow a separate warning from Russia last Wednesday, indicating a readiness to use nuclear weapons if NATO attempted to cut off Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave bordering Poland and Lithuania. A diplomatic note sent to NATO stated that Russia would use its "entire arsenal of forces and capabilities, including nuclear weapons, in order to defend its territory" if NATO countries undertook actions to isolate Kaliningrad. The note accused the alliance of a "dangerous and reckless course" with "high risks of the outbreak of a direct armed conflict."

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte responded by reiterating that the alliance is defensive and urged Russia to cease its nuclear threats, deeming them "absolutely not called for and not helpful." NATO's written response asserted that its activities pose no threat to Russian territory and called on Russia to end its invasion of Ukraine and refrain from "irresponsible nuclear rhetoric."