An explosive-laden drone that struck a Ukrainian cargo plane at Leipzig/Halle Airport on August 4 is believed by investigators to be connected to a Russian sabotage campaign that included sending parcel bombs to Britain two years ago. The drone, packed with Semtex, hit the wing of a stationary Ukrainian Antonov An-124 cargo plane, which was being used to transport military supplies, but failed to detonate.

Security experts are viewing the incident as a significant escalation, demonstrating Russia's willingness to employ drones against targets within Europe. Investigators discovered traces of DNA on the drone that match at least one individual suspected of involvement in a Kremlin-backed sabotage operation.

This operation reportedly included sending incendiary parcel bombs from Vilnius, Lithuania, to the UK approximately two years prior. One parcel detonated and caused a fire at Leipzig-Halle Airport in July 2024 as it was about to be loaded onto a DHL flight to Britain. Two days later, a similar device caught fire at a DHL depot near Birmingham, and two other packages were found in Poland. Investigators believe these incidents were practice runs for potential attacks on commercial flights to the United States.

A joint investigation involving British, German, Polish, Dutch, and Lithuanian authorities identified 22 suspects in Lithuania and Poland allegedly working for Russia’s GRU military intelligence service. Five men suspected of mailing the incendiary devices are currently on trial in Lithuania.

Forensic evidence now suggests the network behind the parcel bombs was also responsible for the drone attack. Professor Peter Neumann, an expert on German security services at King's College London, stated that the DNA found on the Leipzig drone matches a suspect in the 2024 parcel bomb plot targeting a Birmingham warehouse, calling it the "smoking gun."

Roderich Kieswetter, a German MP, indicated that if the DNA evidence is confirmed, it would point to the GRU's involvement, noting that the pattern of behavior aligns with Russian operational tactics. A spokesperson for the prosecutor's office in Lithuania confirmed that the Leipzig drone incident is linked to Lithuania, and the country's defense and interior ministers have reportedly been briefed.

The drone that struck the aircraft is understood to have carried approximately 600 grams of Semtex concealed within a sweetcorn can, which detached upon impact. A defective detonator is believed to have prevented a larger explosion. Polish investigators reportedly identified a cache of similar explosive-filled cans smuggled into Poland by Russian agents.

Intelligence suggests the drone was not radio-controlled but used a 4G or 5G antenna and two mobile phone SIM cards, allowing it to be controlled via the mobile phone network. A small antenna, potentially lodged in a tree near the airport perimeter, may have been used to boost the signal, enabling control from a significant distance, possibly even from another country. Experts note that drones controlled via mobile networks are more challenging to detect and jam than those relying on radio frequencies.

A local resident in Kursdorf, a village near the airport, reported spotting a drone approaching the northern runway on the night of the attack, later observing a police presence in the village. Investigators also believe a second drone was present, possibly relaying live video to the operators of the attack drone. A DHL cargo plane from Marseille reportedly collided with this second drone, forcing an emergency landing in Hanover with minor damage.

Experts have warned that the UK could also face exploding drone threats following Russian threats of retaliation for Ukraine's use of British-made drones to strike Russian territory. The Antonov An-124 aircraft targeted in Leipzig are considered vital for transporting military equipment, and a successful bombing could have resulted in a catastrophic fireball.