Russia has utilized its "shadow fleet" of sanction-evading ships to launch a drone campaign across Europe, aiming to surveil military installations and test NATO's air defense capabilities, according to a report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
Between August 2024 and February 2026, 144 suspected drones were recorded near sensitive military and nuclear sites in NATO member states including Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, the UK, and Denmark. The campaign also targeted airspace over American air bases in the UK in November 2024.
Testing Air Defenses and Response Times
Ret. Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commanding general of US Army Europe, stated that the shadow fleet vessels likely served as platforms for launching drones close to European countries. The report suggests these incursions were designed to probe the reaction times and decision-making thresholds of allied air defense and civil-military command structures. Elisabeth Braw of the Atlantic Council noted that the operators were testing not only authorities' reactions but also public responses and potential political blame.
The drone activity occurred in airspace over more than a dozen NATO states and Ireland, leading to repeated closures of commercial aviation hubs, disruption of military operations, and penetration of perimeters around sensitive defense installations. In 2025, mystery drones targeted military bases in the Netherlands and Belgium, locations believed to house U.S. B61-12 nuclear gravity bombs, and France's ballistic-missile submarine base at Île Longue.
Espionage and Psychological Warfare
According to Hodges, the campaign served a dual purpose of espionage and psychological warfare, intended to create anxiety among European populations and pressure their governments to cease support for Ukraine. The report indicates the campaign sought to identify vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure, including dual-use civilian facilities and military logistics hubs supporting Ukraine. It also aimed to impose economic and psychological costs by disrupting civilian aviation, undermining public confidence in airspace security, and fostering distrust.
The incidents peaked in late 2025, forcing temporary closures of several European airports in Germany, Spain, and Denmark. Sweden was the sole European nation to directly accuse Moscow after a drone launched from a Russian spy ship flew near a French aircraft carrier.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has denied accusations of Russian sabotage and surveillance across Europe, questioning the validity of any proven facts. However, the IISS report tracked the locations of Russian shadow fleet ships, linking them to recent drone incidents and concluding that Russia could use these vessels as launch platforms while maintaining plausible deniability, as drones often do not trigger radar.
Incidents and Shadow Fleet Links
On January 3, 2025, a Russian shadow fleet vessel, the Arctica, sailed along the Danish coast while approximately 20 drones flew over the port of Koege before disappearing at sea. The IISS found several shadow ships, including the Arctica and the Boracay, in the area on September 22, 2025, when drone sightings led to the closure of Copenhagen Airport.
While the report focuses on European incidents, it also notes dozens of unexplained drone sightings in the U.S. over the past several years. In December 2023, unauthorized aircraft appeared over Virginia's Joint Base Langley-Eustis for 17 days, evading military tracking. In March, drones flew near Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana. The Trump administration investigated drone sightings along the U.S. East Coast in late 2024, concluding most were hobbyist drones with no evidence of a foreign threat.
The IISS report differentiates these U.S. incidents from the European campaign, stating that the drones threatening NATO allies are unlikely to be from hobbyists, with Russian shadow vessels being the most probable source.