Russia May Launch Limited NATO Strike This Fall, Danish Intelligence Warns
A potential attack could aim to disrupt Western support for Ukraine, according to a Danish intelligence report.
Russia may conduct a limited military attack on a NATO country in the coming months, potentially using ground troops or long-range weapons, Denmark's Defense Intelligence Service (FE) warned on Thursday. The agency described the risk as "low but growing."
According to the FE report, such an action would be a "desperate move on Russia's part" and could occur as soon as this fall. The agency suggests Russia might cite the protection of Russian minorities in neighboring countries as a pretext, employing tactics similar to those used in eastern Ukraine prior to the 2022 invasion. These operations could involve troops without official Russian insignia or even false-flag operations using Ukrainian-made drones to attack a NATO member.
"The aim is not to take over the country, but to divide NATO," stated FE chief Thomas Ahrenkiel. Along with potential military actions, the agency anticipates an intensification of Russia's hybrid warfare efforts against the West. These efforts have already included accusations of severed undersea cables in Europe and an attempted drone attack on Germany's Leipzig/Halle Airport, prompting calls for new European Union sanctions against Russia.
The Danish intelligence service predicts that these coming hybrid attacks will have more significant consequences for targeted countries than in the past, carrying a "high risk of casualties." Danish Defense Minister Jeppe Bruus commented that Russia, facing pressure and failing to achieve its objectives in Ukraine, is now targeting the support being provided to Kyiv.
The FE estimates that Russia would require approximately six months to wage a local war against a neighboring NATO country and two years to pose a credible threat to the broader region. The agency concluded that it would take Russia five years to recover from the conflict in Ukraine and be capable of waging large-scale war in Europe.
The Kremlin has consistently denied any involvement in hybrid warfare or sabotage operations targeting NATO nations.