Russia is escalating its "hybrid war" against Western nations, utilizing indirect tactics to sow disruption and chaos, warned Mark Galeotti, an expert on Russian security.
Fedorov, described as a Kremlin insider, stated on the BBC's Newsnight that Russia would retaliate against the UK for supplying Storm Shadow missile blueprints and intelligence to Ukraine. He suggested these attacks would come "from unknown sources," indicating Moscow's preference for deniable, indirect methods over direct military confrontation. These tactics, according to Galeotti, are designed to be difficult for Western security services to counter.
Russia's strategy now encompasses several levels of engagement:
Organized Crime and Cyber Warfare
Russia has become a haven for cybercriminals targeting Western companies. These groups engage in activities such as hacker attacks, blackmail scams, and phishing operations, with the tacit understanding that the Russian state will not interfere and will actively obstruct Western agencies attempting to crack down on them. Malware used in these attacks is often programmed to avoid Russian networks, preventing accidental disruption to the country's own systems. High-profile incidents, including ransomware attacks on Marks and Spencer and disruptions to Co-Op payment systems, as well as temporary shutdowns affecting Harrods and Jaguar Land Rover, are cited as examples of this cyber warfare.
Human Trafficking and Financial Laundering
While Russia's attempts to channel migrants into Europe through its borders with Norway and Finland have been countered by Scandinavian authorities, the focus has shifted to financial operations. Russian financial experts, particularly in the United Arab Emirates, are reportedly laundering money for trafficking gangs through complex dark banking transactions. This practice, offered at competitive rates, enhances the profitability of illegal migration routes and places pressure on Western governments.
Social Division and Disinformation
Unlike the ideologically driven efforts of the Soviet Union, Putin's Russia is described as cynically aiming for mass disruption through various political viewpoints, from extreme nationalism to climate change alarmism. "Troll farms" reportedly employ thousands to spread disinformation on UK social media, exacerbating public anger and division. The use of artificial intelligence has amplified these tactics, allowing for highly targeted disinformation campaigns aimed at specific demographics based on harvested personal data.
Disposable Agents and Covert Operations
Instead of relying on deep-cover agents, Moscow now allegedly hires petty criminals to carry out its tasks. An example cited is the arson attacks on properties and a car linked to Sir Keir Starmer, which were reportedly delegated to Ukrainian petty criminals. These "disposable agents" are considered cheaper to employ, require minimal training, and are of little intelligence value if captured.
Potential for Major Disruptions
Galeotti suggests that Putin could order attacks with the potential for significant loss of life and widespread chaos. Such actions could include severing undersea internet cables, launching cyberattacks on critical infrastructure like NHS computer systems to paralyze hospitals and supply chains, or targeting banks, energy companies, and rail networks. Acts of violence against arms manufacturers and assassinations are also mentioned as possibilities, though they would represent a significant escalation.
Such large-scale attacks, however, could provoke strong responses from NATO. Russia may first test NATO's resolve by targeting a weaker nation, such as one of the Baltic states, to gauge Western reactions. Galeotti emphasizes that Russia is searching for signs of weakness, and it is crucial for Western nations not to display any.