Russia has significantly increased its "shadow war" and hybrid attacks against Europe throughout 2026, employing tactics such as drone incursions, attempted arson, and dangerous aerial maneuvers against NATO aircraft. These "grey zone" operations, designed to harass and intimidate without directly triggering Article 5 collective defense, have become more frequent and brazen this year compared to 2024 and 2025, according to reports.
Former British Army commander Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin is intensifying hybrid warfare against the West, utilizing newly established bases to launch drones into NATO territory. He suggested that these activities could be precursors to direct attacks, potentially in the Baltics or along the Lithuania-Poland border, and cautioned that Europe cannot afford to underestimate Russia's intentions or capabilities.
Germany has been a recent focal point for these attacks, with its energy infrastructure, airports, and factories targeted. In August, police and forensic technicians were observed deploying an explosive-disposal robot near a Ukrainian aircraft at Leipzig-Halle Airport, indicating heightened security measures in response to potential threats.
Security sources suggest it is only a matter of time before Britain's defenses are tested, with reports indicating a desire within the Kremlin to target individuals and companies involved in producing military equipment for Ukraine. Defense manufacturers in the UK are reportedly enhancing their security protocols in anticipation of similar incidents.
In November 2024, the British Ministry of Defence confirmed that unidentified drones sighted over RAF and U.S. airbases in Suffolk and Norfolk were Russian. These drones were launched from a Russian intelligence-gathering vessel disguised as a fishing trawler in the North Sea. Similar tactics have been observed with Russian drones launched into NATO territory in the Baltics and Scandinavia this year, also originating from ships.
Countries such as Romania, Moldova, and Poland have reportedly experienced repeated incursions, possibly to gauge their reactions ahead of larger military actions. These incidents have continued despite diplomatic protests.
Adding to the pattern of aggressive actions, two Russian fighter jets conducted a dangerous maneuver, dubbed a "Crazy Ivan" stunt, near a UK intelligence-gathering aircraft over the Black Sea in April. One jet came within 20 feet of the RAF Rivet Joint plane, reportedly disabling its computer systems. This incident highlighted the potential for catastrophic consequences should such close encounters result in mid-air collisions. 
