Russia has intensified its "shadow war" against Europe throughout 2026, employing a campaign of hybrid attacks that includes drone incursions, espionage, sabotage, and suspected arson, according to an analysis of recent events. These "grey zone" operations, while carefully calibrated to avoid triggering a collective defense response under NATO's Article 5, have become more frequent and brazen compared to previous years.
Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former British Army commander, stated that Russia is increasing its hybrid war activities against the West, warning that the assumption that President Vladimir Putin is too committed to the conflict in Ukraine to open another front is incorrect. He suggested that Russia is building bases specifically to launch drones into NATO territory. De Bretton-Gordon cautioned that these escalating attacks could be a precursor to a direct conflict, potentially in the Baltic states or along the Lithuania-Poland border, or that they could be a test of NATO's resolve.
Recent incidents highlight this trend. In August 2026, German authorities responded to a suspected drone incident at Leipzig-Halle Airport, deploying an explosive-disposal robot near Ukrainian aircraft. The airport experienced further disruptions, with cargo planes, including those operated by DHL and Ukrainian Antonov, being affected.
Germany has been a particular focus, with its energy infrastructure, airports, and factories reportedly targeted. The Ministry of Defence confirmed in July 2026 that unidentified drones observed over RAF and U.S. airbases in the UK in November 2024 were Russian in origin. These drones were launched from a Russian intelligence-gathering vessel disguised as a fishing trawler in the North Sea. Similar drone launches into NATO territory in the Baltics and Scandinavia in 2026 also originated from ships.
Countries such as Romania, Moldova, and Poland have also faced repeated Russian incursions, potentially to gauge their responses before a larger military action. These incidents have increased through 2026, despite diplomatic protests.
In April 2026, two Russian fighter jets, a Su-27 and an Su-30, conducted a dangerous maneuver known as a "Crazy Ivan" stunt near a UK intelligence-gathering aircraft over the Black Sea. The Su-27 came within 20 feet of the RAF Rivet Joint plane, temporarily disabling its computer systems.
Security sources suggest that while Russia has maintained plausible deniability for many of its actions, some stunts are intended as deliberate demonstrations of intent and capability to intimidate neighboring countries. There is also concern that it is only a matter of time before Russian agents test British defenses, with a particular eagerness noted within the Kremlin to target individuals like Andy Burnham and British companies supplying military equipment to Ukraine. Defense manufacturers in the UK are reportedly enhancing their security procedures in anticipation of similar incidents.