A recent University of New Hampshire (UNH) Granite State Poll indicates a notable shift in the early 2028 Republican presidential field, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio gaining ground on Vice President JD Vance.
In the latest poll of likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire, Vance secured 36% support, while Rubio garnered 26%. This represents a substantial change from a February UNH survey, which showed Vance leading Rubio 53% to 7%.
Vance has been widely considered a potential heir apparent to former President Donald Trump's base. While he remains the hypothetical frontrunner, Rubio's improved standing in national polls and surveys from key early-voting states suggests a tightening race. This development comes as Rubio's public profile and responsibilities have increased, notably his involvement in U.S. operations in Venezuela and the ongoing conflict with Iran.
Rubio, who ran unsuccessfully in the 2016 Republican primaries, also placed second to Vance in a recent straw poll at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC).
The UNH poll shows Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky in a distant third with 8% support, tied with former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who was the 2024 Republican presidential nominee runner-up. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis followed with 6% support, and other candidates polled at 4% or less.
Despite the shifting poll numbers, Vance and Rubio describe each other as friends. Former President Trump has publicly praised Rubio, calling him potentially "the greatest secretary of state in history," and has also suggested a Vance-Rubio ticket could be "unstoppable," though he has not indicated a preference for who would lead the ticket.
Trump had previously stated that Vance is "most likely" his heir apparent, citing his position as vice president. Vance has assembled a team of advisers, suggesting preparedness for a presidential campaign should he decide to run. Rubio, whose role involves extensive international travel, does not have a similar political team in place and has stated he would support Vance if the vice president enters the 2028 race.
However, some Republican donors are reportedly exploring ways to boost Rubio's profile, a move that has drawn criticism from within Trump's political orbit. An operative close to Trump's political sphere told Fox News Digital that "divisive stories from some donors trying to cause chaos are not helpful," emphasizing Vance's position as "the future of the Republican Party."
Vance himself has downplayed any perceived rivalry, telling Fox News' Martha MacCallum that "Marco is my closest friend in the administration" and that "the media wants to create this conflict where there just isn't any conflict."
Trump's endorsement is expected to play a significant role in the 2028 nomination race. A longtime Republican strategist cautioned that Vance faces a delicate balance, noting that "Trump is going to blame him" if things go wrong, making the next two years a challenging period for the vice president.