Republicans Shift Funds in House Races as Democrats See Openings

Republican super PACs are retreating from a handful of battleground U.S. House races, while Democrats are racing to raise money to boost candidates who appeared to be long shots earlier this year. The Congressional Leadership Fund, the leading House Republican super PAC, has canceled spending in four races across the Midwest and East Coast and increased its investment in 16 other districts. Another PAC aligned with former President Donald Trump is also cutting back in a Nevada district.

These shifts in campaign spending, disclosed by three Republican campaign officials who spoke on condition of anonymity, indicate an increasingly defensive posture for Republicans in the final weeks of the midterm campaigns. Simultaneously, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is identifying openings in Republican-held districts and aiming to raise millions of dollars for a late advertising push that they believe could lead to gaining at least a half dozen more seats.

"You can tell now where people are competing based on where they’re putting the money," said Stu Sandler, a Republican strategist. David McIntosh, president of the conservative Club For Growth, noted that the economic environment has been challenging for Republicans, leading to voter dissatisfaction and a drop in base enthusiasm. "It looked like Republicans were weak," McIntosh said.

The Congressional Leadership Fund has stopped advertising in Iowa's 1st District, where Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks faces Democrat Christina Bohannan, a race decided by fewer than 800 votes in the previous election. The group also ceased spending in New Jersey's 7th District, where second-term Republican Rep. Tom Kean is running against Democrat Rebecca Bennett. Kean has faced scrutiny over a four-month absence from Congress. These districts, along with races in Ohio and Michigan, had accounted for over $13 million in Congressional Leadership Fund spending. The PAC will instead focus on districts where Trump won by narrow margins in 2024.

In Nevada's 3rd District, the MAGA Inc.-aligned PAC Safety and Affordability pulled nearly $1 million in ad spending intended to help Republican Marty O’Donnell unseat Democratic Rep. Susie Lee. Republicans had hoped that Trump's tax-cut legislation would resonate in Las Vegas.

As House Republicans retrench, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee believes at least a dozen more races could be within striking distance. The committee launched a $17 million fundraising drive, seeking to inject advertising into districts that were previously considered out of reach. "It’s not that we need the money to win in the districts where we have been running to get to 218 seats," said Courtney Rice, the committee’s communications director. "We’re talking about the next level."

One target district is Ohio's 10th, represented by Republican Rep. Mike Turner. Democrats view Turner as potentially beatable despite his past electoral success and Trump's win in the district in 2024. Turner began advertising late in September, and the National Republican Congressional Committee started spending in the district this week.

If the Democratic committee reaches its fundraising goal, it plans to advertise in the Miami area, suburban St. Louis, and the Little Rock, Arkansas, area. These efforts could be amplified by a Supreme Court decision that allows coordinated spending at lower candidate rates.

Meanwhile, Senate Republicans are also shifting their priorities, pouring millions more into Nebraska to protect Sen. Pete Ricketts against independent Dan Osborn, who is backed by Democrats. The Senate Leadership Fund announced a $15 million investment in Nebraska. The group has also increased spending in Ohio's Senate race. These investments follow new spending in Kansas and South Carolina, while the party has pulled back from earlier commitments in Georgia and North Carolina.

Senate Democrats are also adjusting their strategy, withdrawing advertising from Georgia and focusing instead on states including Maine, New Hampshire, Michigan, Iowa, Kansas, Texas, Alaska, and Ohio. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer framed the battle for Senate control as a question of whether "the unprecedented tsunami of Republican money defeat the massive Democratic advantage in candidates, policies, and political climate?"